Mets vs Phillies Betting Preview & Predictions | Saturday MLB Picks

by | Jun 21, 2025 | mlb

Pete Alonso NY Mets

The New York Mets (45-31) and Philadelphia Phillies (46-30) continue their pivotal NL East weekend series at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday night. After Philadelphia took the opener to grab a one-game division lead, this matchup features an intriguing pitching duel between Griffin Canning and rookie sensation Mick Abel. I’m particularly intrigued by Abel’s emergence as a dominant arm for the Phillies, as his elite command and impressive early results create value in a home favorite situation against a Mets team currently riding a seven-game losing streak.

Quick Picks:

  • Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-125) ★★★★☆
  • Top Prop: Mick Abel Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105) ★★★★☆
  • Value Play: Total Under 9.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆

Mets vs Phillies Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement

Market New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies
Moneyline +105 -125
Run Line +1.5 (-170) -1.5 (+150)
Total Over 9.5 (-110) Under 9.5 (-110)

Opening Line: Phillies -120, Total 9.5

Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers

The line movement on this game has been minimal, with just a slight push toward Philadelphia despite their impressive win in the series opener. The Mets’ seven-game skid has professional bettors cautious about backing New York, especially with rookie phenom Mick Abel taking the mound for Philadelphia. Sharp money appears to be respecting Abel’s early dominance, while simultaneously showing concern about Griffin Canning’s road performance this season. I’m not seeing any reverse line movement that would indicate smart money on the Mets, which aligns with my analysis of the pitching matchup.

Pitching Matchup: Griffin Canning vs Mick Abel – Who Has the Edge?

New York Mets: Griffin Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA)

  • Has been serviceable but not spectacular this season with a 3.80 ERA
  • Higher walk rate (4.3 BB/9) creates traffic and high-stress innings
  • Has struggled with consistency on the road (4.58 ERA away from Citi Field)
  • Allowing a .245 opponent batting average with a 1.40 WHIP

Philadelphia Phillies: Mick Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA)

  • Former first-round pick has been phenomenal through his first four MLB starts
  • Excellent command with just 4 walks in 20.1 innings (1.8 BB/9)
  • Holding opponents to a .202 batting average with a stellar 1.03 WHIP
  • Fastball-slider combination has generated a 25.9% whiff rate

Advantage: Philadelphia. Abel’s elite command and impressive early results give the Phillies a significant edge. His 2.21 ERA and minuscule 1.03 WHIP show he’s not just surviving but thriving at the MLB level. Canning has been serviceable but struggles with command issues that could prove costly in a hitter-friendly park.

Bullpen Breakdown

The bullpen comparison heavily favors Philadelphia in this matchup. The Mets’ relief corps has been in complete disarray during their seven-game losing streak, posting a 6.82 ERA over that span. Friday’s blowout loss further taxed key arms, with Reed Garrett and Justin Garza both looking completely ineffective. The Phillies, meanwhile, have one of the most reliable bullpens in baseball, posting a 3.31 ERA over their last 10 games. With Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering forming a formidable late-inning trio, Philadelphia has a decided advantage if this game remains close into the later innings.

Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter

  • The Mets are on a seven-game losing streak, scoring just 12 total runs during this stretch
  • Philadelphia has won 8 of their last 9 games, outscoring opponents 50-25 in that span
  • The Phillies are 29-13 at Citizens Bank Park this season
  • New York is just 2-5 in Griffin Canning’s last 7 road starts
  • Philadelphia is 4-0 in Mick Abel’s four MLB starts
  • The Phillies have dominated the NL East this season, going 19-10 against divisional opponents
  • The Mets are batting just .198 as a team during their seven-game losing streak

Pete Alonso’s Power Stroke: Can He Break the Mets’ Offensive Slump?

Pete Alonso’s home run on Friday provided a rare bright spot in the Mets’ recent offensive struggles. The slugger now has 21 homers on the season and has always hit well at Citizens Bank Park (12 HRs in 39 career games). While Alonso could certainly leave the yard again, Abel has been exceptional at limiting hard contact, allowing just 2 home runs across his 20.1 innings. This battle between Abel’s rising fastball and Alonso’s power will be a fascinating subplot in Saturday’s matchup, but I’m giving the edge to Abel’s command and the Phillies’ overall momentum.

Citizens Bank Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game

Citizens Bank Park ranks among the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball, with a park factor of 1.15 for runs scored in 2025. The ballpark is particularly generous to right-handed power hitters, with the left field wall sitting just 329 feet from home plate. Despite these hitter-friendly confines, I’m expecting Abel’s command to neutralize some of the park effects. Weather conditions for Saturday night (75°F with minimal wind) are neutral and shouldn’t significantly impact the game’s dynamics. The Phillies have masterfully used their home field advantage this season, posting a 29-13 record at CBP.

Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Phillies Showdown

Primary Play: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-125)

This is a straightforward play on the better team with the better pitcher. Abel has been phenomenal in his brief MLB career, showing elite command and the ability to generate weak contact. Combine that with the Mets’ prolonged offensive struggles and bullpen issues, and Philadelphia becomes an easy choice even laying a small price. The Phillies’ 29-13 home record provides additional confidence in a team playing with momentum against a reeling opponent. I’d play this up to -135.

Strong Value Play: Mick Abel Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Abel has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in three of his four MLB starts, including 6 Ks in his most recent outing against Miami. The Mets have been striking out at an alarming rate during their losing streak (8.4 K/game), and Abel’s fastball-slider combination should generate plenty of swings and misses. Getting plus money on this prop makes it extremely attractive given the matchup circumstances.

Worth Considering: Total Under 9.5 Runs (-110)

While Citizens Bank Park typically favors hitters, the pitching matchup and the Mets’ offensive struggles point toward a lower-scoring affair. New York has averaged just 1.7 runs per game during their seven-game skid, and Abel has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in any start. The total of 9.5 feels a half-run too high, creating value on the under.

Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup

Player Prop Odds Rating
Mick Abel Over 5.5 Strikeouts +105 ★★★★☆
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 ★★★★☆
Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts -125 ★★★☆☆
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run +320 ★★★☆☆
Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 RBIs +140 ★★★★☆

Final Thoughts: Phillies’ Momentum Too Strong to Ignore

The contrast between these teams couldn’t be more stark right now. Philadelphia has won 8 of 9 and is playing with supreme confidence at home, while the Mets are in a downward spiral that shows no signs of stopping. Abel has been a revelation for the Phillies’ rotation and should continue his impressive start to his MLB career against a struggling Mets lineup. The bullpen advantage further tilts this matchup toward Philadelphia, making the Phillies moneyline my strongest play of the night.

Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 2

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