The first NFL regular season game in Australia is Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Joe Jensen takes San Francisco getting the points, with the 49ers’ week-long acclimation trip and Matthew Stafford’s back injury tilting the value toward the visitors.
Seven months after Super Bowl LX, these two teams meet again in Seattle to open the 2026 season. Joe Jensen makes the case for the Patriots covering the small spread as road underdogs.
The Cardinals arrive in San Francisco without Masyn Winn, Blaze Jordan, and JJ Wetherholt — three regulars stripped from a lineup now facing one of the more durable starters in baseball. The total is sitting at 7.5 with the under priced at -106, the lightest number on the board. The angle is inside.
Irvin vs. Pivetta is a clearer mismatch than the posted 8.0 total implies. The under sits at -108 while the projected combined run total comes in at just 8.4 — a four-tenths gap inside a park with a 0.92 run-suppression factor. The side is inside.
The bullpen gap between these two teams is defined by Boston’s relief unit — a 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP that functions as the back-half insurance policy in a game where both starters carry ERAs north of 5.00. The total is posted at 8.5, with the Under sitting at -103 and the Over drawing -117, a spread that signals the market isn’t fully committing to either side. The edge is explained inside.
Baltimore’s -29 run differential heading into this spot is the kind of number that doesn’t happen by accident — it signals an offense that consistently leaves runs on the board. The total sits at 8.0 with the under priced at -108, the cheaper side in a neutral park against two cold lineups. Find out which way this one goes.
Gasser’s sinker and cutter both carry xwOBA marks above .370, a real exposure point against a Cubs lineup that leads the matchup in home runs and OPS. The moneyline has Chicago at +104 in a game the projections call a virtual tie — less than a half-run separating these two teams. The breakdown is inside.
Tong vs. Perez is a clearer mismatch than the Marlins -121 moneyline implies. A 6.30 BB/9 rookie squares off against a 9.64 K/9 arm with 135 innings of evidence behind it — and the market is still pricing this within a single run of even money. The analysis is inside.
Holmes’s 1.31 WHIP and 19 home runs allowed signal a pitcher who manages damage rather than erases it — and he’s drawing a Phillies lineup with Schwarber’s .512 xwOBA against lefties lurking. The total is posted at 8.0 at flat juice (-110 each side), treating both halves of this pitching matchup as roughly equal. The pick is inside.
Dodger Stadium’s 0.98 park factor changes the weight this 8.5 total can actually carry — especially with Ohtani day-to-day and Washington’s Alvarez posting a 3.47 ERA that runs ahead of his 2-6 record. The Under is priced at -117 in a game where the combined run projection lands at 8.8, a number that barely clears the posted total. The breakdown is inside.