Quick Recap:
• Record: 3-3-1
• Units: +0.1
• Best Win: Over 11 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 9.5 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen’s June 11 card finished at +0.1 units on a 3-3-1 record — a near-breakeven result that looked better on paper than it felt in practice. The issue wasn’t the win count; it was where the exposure landed. The three losses came on plays risking 1.22u, 2.44u, and 2.20u respectively, while the push absorbed another 2.24u without return. The three wins — including a pair of 2-unit earners — kept the card afloat, but the under side of the ledger took damage in spots where the premise didn’t hold. A fractional positive is still a positive, but this was a grind-it-out day rather than a clean one.
Cubs at Rockies
Pick: Over 11 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After the previous game in this series went under 12.5 — a loss — Jensen came back to the over in game two at Coors Field, and this time the offense showed up. The Cubs broke it open in the fourth inning with a four-run frame, capped by Seiya Suzuki’s third career grand slam. Alex Bregman added a two-run homer, and Chicago cruised to a 9-3 final. The Cubs had been held to three or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games entering Thursday, so the offensive breakout was a welcome surprise. Colorado’s Brett Sullivan went 3-for-4 with two home runs and two RBI, accounting for most of the Rockies’ production. The total crossed 11 comfortably enough, and the 2.30u risk returned a clean +2.00u on the top of the card.
Diamondbacks at Marlins
Pick: Miami Marlins ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After backing Arizona in game one of this series and losing, Jensen flipped to Miami in game two — and the Marlins delivered again. Tyler Phillips was sharp in his return to form, allowing just two hits over five innings with five strikeouts on 70 pitches to earn his first win of the season. The bullpen trio of Michael Petersen, Anthony Bender, and Calvin Faucher combined for six more strikeouts, and Pete Fairbanks closed it out for his eighth save. Otto Lopez provided the offensive spark with two stolen bases and a run scored, while Xavier Edwards drove in the decisive run. Arizona managed just one hit from Ketel Marte and went 0-for-the-game offensively in any meaningful sense — Nolan Arenado struck out three times. A clean 2-0 final, a clean win at -112, and +2.00u back on a 2.24u risk.
Twins at Tigers
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -1.22u
Detroit had gone under 9 in the prior game of this series, and Jensen came back with an under 9.5 in game two — but the Tigers had other plans. Detroit hit six home runs in an 11-0 blowout, with Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, and Wenceel Pérez all going deep. The game was effectively over by the sixth inning. Minnesota was held scoreless throughout, managing just a handful of hits with no real threat. This was a missed read — the premise of a low-scoring game had no traction from the opening frame, and the total blew past 9.5 well before the final out. The 1.22u risk was the smallest on the card, which softened the blow, but the handicap was off from the start.
Cardinals at Mets
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Push | Net: 0.00u
The Cardinals had put up nine runs in game one of this series — a blowout win — and Jensen went back to the under in game two at a tighter number. The game finished 5-4 Mets, landing exactly on nine total runs for the push. It was a homer-heavy affair: six home runs were hit between the two clubs, including Juan Soto’s go-ahead shot in the seventh that gave New York the win. Alec Burleson, Jimmy Crooks, Lars Nootbaar, Bo Bichette, and Jared Young all went deep. The under was alive through the middle innings but the power bats kept the total right on the line. A push on 2.24u risked is a neutral result — no damage, no gain.
Rangers at Royals
Pick: Under 10.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After losing an under 9.5 in the prior game between these teams, Jensen moved the number up to 10.5 in game two of the series — and the pitching held. Texas built a 3-0 lead through three innings on Brandon Nimmo’s RBI double, Elias Díaz’s squeeze bunt, and Corey Seager’s solo homer. Kansas City answered with two runs in the fourth but couldn’t mount a sustained rally. The final was Rangers 4, Royals 2, well inside the number. Seager went 2-for-4 with the homer and two runs scored to lead the offense. The under was never seriously threatened after the fourth inning, and the 2.48u risk returned +2.00u cleanly.
Dodgers at Pirates
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.44u
This was the card’s heaviest loss. Jensen had gone under 8 in game one of this series and lost; coming back with under 9.5 in game two, the total still didn’t cooperate. Los Angeles scored three in the third, two in the fourth, and two more in the seventh to build an 8-0 lead before Pittsburgh rallied for six runs — four in the fifth and two in the eighth — to make it an 8-6 final. Shohei Ohtani hit his 13th homer and reached base all four times before leaving with left knee inflammation, a notable storyline. Rafael Flores Jr. and Brandon Lowe homered for Pittsburgh. The total finished at 14, well over the number. Back-to-back losses on the under in this matchup, and the 2.44u exposure made this the single most damaging result on the card.
Mariners at Orioles
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.20u
Jensen had backed Seattle’s moneyline in the prior game of this four-game series and lost; the under 8.5 in the finale was a different angle but the same outcome. Baltimore’s six-run third inning off Bryan Woo — capped by Pete Alonso’s homer — put the game out of reach early. Seattle responded with three home runs of their own off Kyle Bradish (Cole Young, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone), making it a 7-5 final and a 12-run total. The under was essentially dead after the third inning. Adley Rutschman drove in three runs for Baltimore. This was a variance loss in the sense that the big inning was concentrated and sudden, but the total still finished well above 8.5. The 2.20u risk added meaningful damage alongside the Dodgers-Pirates loss.
The card’s three wins — Cubs/Rockies over, Marlins ML, and Rangers/Royals under — each returned +2.00u and carried the day. The problem was the two heavier under losses in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, which combined for -4.64u in exposure. The Twins/Tigers under added another -1.22u on what was a clear blowout miss. The push in New York neutralized 2.24u of risk without contributing to the bottom line. Ultimately, the wins were just enough to offset the losses, landing at +0.1 units — a functional breakeven that reflects a card where the right plays hit but the under exposure in two games did real damage.
Missed Reads: Twins at Tigers (Under 9.5 — Detroit’s six-homer blowout had no traction for the under from the start)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Dodgers at Pirates (Under 9.5 — a big Dodgers lead was offset by a Pittsburgh rally, total finished at 14); Mariners at Orioles (Under 8.5 — a concentrated six-run third inning sank the under in an otherwise manageable game)
Clean Wins: Cubs at Rockies (Over 11), Diamondbacks at Marlins (Marlins ML), Rangers at Royals (Under 10.5)
