Quick Recap:
• Record: 9-5
• Units: +7.2
• Best Win: Under 9 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 8 (-2.2u)
Joe Jensen posted a strong +7.2 units on Tuesday, June 16, going 9-5 on a 14-game graded card. The net result was built on a foundation of well-placed totals and a few money-line wins that held their edge cleanly. Where the card took damage was concentrated — the Twins-Rangers under was a blowout loss, the Phillies offense torched the Marlins under, and the Yankees turned a low-total setup into a laugher. But the winners were consistent enough in unit delivery to absorb those hits and still finish meaningfully positive. Allocation mattered here: the losses were spread across reasonable-sized positions, while the winners returned at or near their target units across the board.
Rockies at Cubs
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
In game two of the series at Wrigley, the Under 9 at +102 came through cleanly in a 5-2 Colorado win. Willi Castro continued a torrid stretch — 7-for-13 with nine RBI over three games — and TJ Rumfield added a two-run homer, but the offense was concentrated and efficient rather than voluminous. Ryan Feltner gave the Rockies 4⅔ innings of two-run ball, and four relievers shut the Cubs out the rest of the way. The Cubs managed just two runs, and the total finished well inside the number. A clean win at a plus price, risking 1.96u to net +2.00u.
Twins at Rangers
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.20u
The Under 8 in game two of this Minnesota-Texas series was buried early and decisively. The Twins put up 12 runs on the Rangers, with Trevor Larnach going 4-for-6 with a homer and Kody Clemens adding a homer, double, and three RBI. Minnesota scored in the first, third, fourth, and ninth innings, turning this into a rout. The Rangers managed just two runs. This was a missed read — the total blew past the number by six runs, and there was no competitive path to the under once the Twins’ bats got going. The 2.20u risk was the largest single loss on the card.
Tigers at Astros
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
In game two of the Detroit-Houston series — after the Tigers had put up nine runs in game one — Jensen went back to the under at +102, and the pitching held. The game was a 4-2 Astros win, with most of the drama concentrated in the eighth inning when rookie Raynel Delgado singled in two runs to flip a 2-1 deficit. The game stayed low-scoring through seven, and the final total of six runs was well under the 8.5 number. A bounce-back spot after the prior game’s offensive explosion, and the read held. Risked 1.96u, returned +2.00u.
Angels at Diamondbacks
Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
In game two of the Angels-Diamondbacks series, Jensen backed the Angels at +110 on the money line — a plus-price underdog call that paid off in a dominant 7-0 shutout. Mike Trout was the story: a 436-foot two-run homer in the fifth and an RBI double in the sixth. Reid Detmers worked seven scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and striking out three. The Angels scored in seven of nine innings and never let Arizona breathe. The Diamondbacks’ offense was completely neutralized. Risked 1.82u at a plus number and collected +2.00u. A clean win with good value attached.
Pirates at Athletics
Pick: Under 10.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.04u
The Under 10.5 in game two of the Pittsburgh-Oakland series finished at exactly 11 combined runs — just enough to push the bet into a loss. The A’s jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, and while the Pirates rallied — Bryan Reynolds homering from both sides of the plate and going 4-for-5 with three RBI — Brandon Lowe’s ninth-inning go-ahead shot sealed a 6-5 Pittsburgh win. Zack Gelof extended his hitting streak to 20 games for Oakland. This was a variance loss: the game was competitive and the total was reasonable, but the late-inning drama pushed it just over the number. Risked 2.04u.
Rays at Dodgers
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML | Result: Lost | Net: -1.41u
In game two of the Rays-Dodgers series, Jensen took Tampa Bay at +142 — a reasonable plus-price play that came down to one swing. Justin Wrobleski (8-2) was locked in, throwing six shutout innings on three hits with no walks. The Rays had chances but couldn’t convert, and Shohei Ohtani hit a first-pitch solo homer off Drew Rasmussen in the sixth inning for the game’s only run. Tanner Scott closed it out for his ninth save. A 1-0 loss on a well-pitched game by both sides — this falls into variance territory. The Rays were competitive; Ohtani just happened to be Ohtani. Risked 1.41u.
Marlins at Phillies
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.16u
Jensen had gone back to the Phillies-Marlins well after winning the Under 7.5 in game one — a reasonable continuation given the prior day’s result. But Philadelphia’s offense erupted in game two, putting up seven runs in the first two innings alone. Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber all homered, and Jesús Luzardo was dominant on the mound with seven innings of two-run ball. Tyler Phillips, facing his former team, gave up all three home runs. The final was 8-2, well over the number. The premise didn’t hold — the Phillies’ bats came alive in a way that made this a missed read, particularly given the early-inning damage. Risked 2.16u.
Royals at Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After winning the Over 9 in game one of this series, Jensen pivoted to the Nationals money line at -130 in game two — and Washington delivered again. Curtis Mead hit a tiebreaking three-run homer in the seventh inning to lift the Nationals to a 6-4 win. Nasim Nuñez tripled twice and scored three times. Kansas City is now 16 games under .500 and has lost six of seven. The Royals had the lead entering the seventh but couldn’t hold it. Risked 2.60u at the chalk price and returned +2.00u. A clean win, though the price required meaningful exposure to generate the target return.
Jays at Sox
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Opening a new series in Boston, Jensen backed the Blue Jays at -118 and Toronto came through with a 6-1 win. Dylan Cease threw five shutout innings, Davis Schneider and Andrés Giménez hit back-to-back homers in the fifth, and George Springer added his 300th career home run with a two-run shot. The Red Sox managed just one run on Jarren Duran’s homer in the eighth, by which point the game was well in hand. A clean, comfortable win — the Blue Jays controlled the game from the fifth inning on. Risked 2.36u, returned +2.00u.
Sox at Yankees
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.00u
Opening a new series at Yankee Stadium, the Under 7.5 at even money was wiped out by a Yankees offensive explosion. New York put up four runs in the third and six more in the fourth, with Spencer Jones, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt all going deep. Gerrit Cole handled his side, allowing just two runs in six innings. The final was 12-2 — a 14-run total that blew past the number by 6.5. Davis Martin was roughed up badly for the White Sox. This was a missed read; the Yankees’ bats showed no signs of slowing down once they got going, and the total was never in play after the fourth inning. Risked 2.00u.
Mets at Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
In game two of the Mets-Reds series — after losing the Under 8.5 in game one — Jensen took Cincinnati at +104 at reduced unit size (1u target). The Reds delivered a 5-3 win behind a four-run first inning powered by Sal Stewart’s three-run homer and Spencer Steer’s solo shot. Kodai Senga, returning from the IL, allowed four earned runs in four innings and couldn’t hold the early deficit. Mark Vientos hit a pinch-hit homer in the sixth for New York, but the Reds’ bullpen held on. A clean win at a plus price, though the lighter 0.96u risk kept the return modest at +1.00u.
Giants at Braves
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Opening a new series in Atlanta, Jensen went Under 9 at -115 and the game finished 3-2 Giants — five combined runs, well inside the number. The scoring was front-loaded, with all five runs coming in the first two innings. After that, both pitching staffs locked it down. Luis Arraez went 2-for-2 with a double for San Francisco, and Drake Baldwin homered for Atlanta. The game was brief in terms of scoring activity and the under was never threatened after the second inning. Risked 2.30u, returned +2.00u. A clean win.
Guardians at Brewers
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Opening a new series in Milwaukee, the Under 8.5 at -124 played out in a tight 2-1 Brewers win. Aaron Ashby was dominant through six scoreless innings before the Guardians tied it in the seventh. Garrett Mitchell then answered immediately with a 440-foot solo homer to center to give Milwaukee the lead for good. Three combined runs — the under was never in serious jeopardy. Gabriel Arias had two hits and the RBI for Cleveland, but the offense was otherwise quiet. Risked 2.48u, returned +2.00u. A clean win in a well-pitched, low-scoring game.
Padres at Cardinals
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
After backing the Cardinals money line in game one of this series, Jensen returned to the under in game two at -124. Andre Pallante was excellent — seven innings, two runs, four hits, six strikeouts — and the Cardinals won 3-2. The Padres managed just two runs on four hits, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill each contributing RBI. Riley O’Brien closed it for his 18th save. Five combined runs, well under the 8.5 number. A clean win to close the card, with Pallante’s outing doing the heavy lifting. Risked 2.48u, returned +2.00u.
Missed Reads: Twins at Rangers (Under 8), Marlins at Phillies (Under 8), Sox at Yankees (Under 7.5)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Pirates at Athletics (Under 10.5), Rays at Dodgers (Rays ML)
Clean Wins: Rockies at Cubs (Under 9), Tigers at Astros (Under 8.5), Angels at Diamondbacks (Angels ML), Royals at Nationals (Nationals ML), Jays at Sox (Blue Jays ML), Mets at Reds (Reds ML), Giants at Braves (Under 9), Guardians at Brewers (Under 8.5), Padres at Cardinals (Under 8.5)
The final tally of +7.2 units on a 9-5 card reflects a day where the clean wins were plentiful and the losses, while real, were manageable in aggregate. Three missed reads — Minnesota’s offensive explosion, the Phillies’ early-inning barrage, and the Yankees’ blowout — accounted for the bulk of the damage at roughly 6.36u in combined losses. But nine winning positions, most returning at or near their 2.00u target, more than offset that exposure. The card’s construction held up: the under plays that won were genuinely low-scoring affairs, the money-line winners were decisive, and the two variance losses (Pirates and Rays) were competitive games that went the wrong way by a narrow margin. A well-structured positive day.
