Quick Recap:
• Record: 9-1
• Units: +13.9
• Best Win: St. Louis Cardinals ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Over 10 (-2.1u)
Joe Jensen posted one of his cleaner days of the season on July 3, 2026, finishing 9-1 on graded picks for a net result of +13.9 units. The card was built on solid unit allocation — multiple 2-unit positions hit cleanly, the lone loss was contained, and the higher-confidence plays largely delivered. This was a night where exposure landed in the right places: moneylines on teams with momentum, totals that reflected genuine pitching matchups, and a spread of markets that held up across the board. The single blemish, an over in Baltimore-Cincinnati, was a clean miss against a pitcher who simply locked it down. Everything else graded correctly.
Cardinals at Cubs
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
The Cardinals didn’t just win — they dismantled the Cubs 17-1 in what was one of the most lopsided results of the day. St. Louis scored in five of the first six innings, including a five-spot in the fourth and a three-run second and third. Ivan Herrera went 3-for-4 with 2 RBI and three runs scored, while Masyn Winn launched a home run and drove in four. Alec Burleson added 4 RBI. The Cubs managed just one run, in the seventh. At +112, risking 1.79u to win 2.00u, this was a clean moneyline play that paid off emphatically. Jensen had backed the Braves in the prior Cardinals series and took the loss — this was a bounce-back spot, and the Cardinals obliged in dominant fashion.
Twins at Yankees
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
The Yankees snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 5-2 win over Minnesota, and the under 9.5 cashed comfortably with a 7-run total. Trent Grisham returned from a hamstring injury and hit a leadoff homer, then added a sacrifice fly. Ben Rice’s go-ahead two-run shot in the third after a rain delay was the decisive blow. Gerrit Cole pitched five innings and kept the Twins in check. Kody Clemens provided Minnesota’s only real offensive threat with a homer and double. The game was low-scoring throughout — only one inning saw more than one run — making this a clean under result with no late-inning drama required.
Orioles at Reds
Pick: Over 10 | Result: Lost (-2.12u)
The lone loss on the card, and it was a shutout. Baltimore blanked Cincinnati 3-0, with Trevor Rogers pitching out of trouble for five innings and Samuel Basallo providing the offensive punch with a two-run homer — his 13th of the season. Brady Singer, who entered the game having allowed 20 home runs in 17 starts, was the expected vulnerability on the over, but he held up well enough. The Reds managed just one hit of note, with Elly De La Cruz drawing two walks and swiping two bags but never scoring. The over premise had logic given Singer’s home run rate, but Rogers and the Orioles’ bullpen combined to keep Cincinnati off the board entirely. A missed read, though not an unreasonable one given the matchup profile. The day prior, Jensen had also taken the under 6.5 in a Reds-Brewers game and lost — the Cincinnati offense continues to be a difficult read.
Mets at Braves
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won (+1.00u)
Atlanta won 5-3 in a game that stayed well under the number. Matt Olson hit two home runs, Michael Harris II added a two-run shot, and Ozzie Albies also went deep — four home runs total for the Braves, but the game’s scoring was spread across multiple innings without any single blowup inning. Juan Soto homered for New York, but the Mets fell to 16 games under .500 for the first time since 2018. The under 9.5 at -124 risked 1.24u to win 1.00u — a lighter allocation that still graded correctly. Jensen had backed the Braves ML in a prior Cardinals series and took a loss; this time the under on the same Atlanta squad cashed cleanly.
Giants at Rockies
Pick: Over 11 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Coors Field delivered. Colorado routed San Francisco 15-3, with Jake McCarthy putting on a performance for the ages — a leadoff homer to open the game, an RBI single in the third, and a grand slam in a seven-run fifth inning. McCarthy finished 4-for-5 with two home runs and a career-high six RBI. Logan Webb took the loss for the Giants, allowing runs early and often. Rafael Devers homered for San Francisco, but it was a mismatch from the jump. The over 11 at -105 cleared with 18 combined runs. Jensen had won an over 12 in the prior Marlins-Rockies game at this same venue — the Coors read was consistent and it paid again.
Rays at Astros
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Tampa Bay extended its winning streak to nine games with a 3-1 victory in Houston. Nick Fortes homered and added a run-scoring double, while Junior Caminero hit a solo shot. The Rays’ offense was efficient rather than explosive — they scored in the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings to build a lead that the bullpen protected. Steven Okert was effective in relief of Spencer Arrighetti. Yordan Alvarez homered for Houston, but the Astros couldn’t generate enough to overcome Tampa Bay’s momentum. Jensen had backed the Rays ML in their prior series against Kansas City and won — this was a continuation of the same read, and the Rays kept delivering.
Sox at Angels
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML | Result: Won (+1.00u)
Boston won 5-2 behind rookie Jake Bennett, who pitched into the eighth inning while allowing five hits. The bigger story was Aroldis Chapman setting the all-time major league record for relief strikeouts, breaking Hoyt Wilhelm’s mark with his 1,364th career strikeout as a reliever. Romy Gonzalez went 3-for-4 with a triple and 2 RBI, and Caleb Durbin homered. The Angels got a solo shot from Jose Siri but couldn’t generate consistent offense. At -104, this was a near-even moneyline play risking 1.04u to win 1.00u — a lighter allocation that graded correctly without much drama.
Marlins at Athletics
Pick: Miami Marlins ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Miami came out swinging — literally. The Marlins scored six runs in the first inning before the first out was recorded, with Heriberto Hernandez hitting a 414-foot three-run homer and the first five batters all coming around to score. Kyle Stowers went 4-for-5 with two home runs and three RBI. Jakob Marsee and Owen Caisse also went deep. The Marlins finished with five home runs in a 12-5 blowout. At +108, Jensen risked 1.85u to win 2.00u on a plus-money underdog that turned into a rout. The Marlins had just been blown out 14-4 by Colorado in their prior game, but Jensen went back to Miami in a new spot — and the team responded with its best offensive output of the series.
Padres at Dodgers
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
This one required some late-inning patience. San Diego led 3-0 through six innings before Teoscar Hernández hit a go-ahead grand slam off Adrian Morejon in the seventh to give Los Angeles a 4-3 lead. The Dodgers held on for the win, and the final score of 4-3 came in well under the total of 8. Michael King was chased in the seventh after the Padres built their lead, and a Jake Cronenworth error helped set up the Dodgers’ rally. Jackson Merrill homered for San Diego. The under 8 at -112 risked 2.24u — the largest single risk on the card — and it held despite the seventh-inning drama. Jensen had taken the under 8.5 in the prior Padres-Dodgers game and lost; this time the tighter number cashed in the rematch.
Jays at Mariners
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Dylan Cease was dominant. The Blue Jays ace struck out nine in seven innings, allowing just three hits and one walk, to blank Seattle 2-0 in an ALCS rematch. Andrés Giménez hit an RBI double and scored on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. single in the third — that two-run frame was all Toronto needed. Jeff Hoffman added two more strikeouts in a hitless eighth. Luis Castillo took the loss for the Mariners, who managed only one extra-base hit. At -130, risking 2.60u to win 2.00u, this was the highest-risk play on the card — and Cease made it look routine. Jensen had won an under 7.5 in the prior Angels-Mariners game; backing Toronto against Seattle’s pitching in a new series was a different angle that paid off cleanly.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
The side-play card went 2-0 on July 3 — these are lean recommendations only, with no units assigned, tracked separately from the official graded record.
Pirates at Nationals
The lean was on Washington at -142, and the Nationals delivered a 9-5 win over Pittsburgh. Washington’s offense did the heavy lifting, pulling away for a comfortable margin that validated the home-side read.
Sox at Guardians
Cleveland was the lean at -134, and the Guardians edged the White Sox 4-3 in a close one. A tight game that required the full nine, but the Guardians held on to cash the side play.
Overall, July 3 was a well-structured graded card. Nine of ten picks cashed, the lone loss was contained at -2.12u, and the unit allocation held up across the board. The Cardinals blowout, the Coors over, and the Rays moneyline were the clearest reads on the card. The Padres-Dodgers under required some patience through a seventh-inning grand slam, but the number held. The Blue Jays ML at -130 was the highest-risk play and Cease made it a non-event. The only true miss was the Orioles-Reds over, where Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore bullpen combined to shut out a Cincinnati lineup that simply never got going.
Missed Reads: Over 10 — Orioles at Reds
Variance / Competitive Losses: None
Clean Wins: Cardinals ML, Under 9.5 (Twins-Yankees), Under 9.5 (Mets-Braves), Over 11 (Giants-Rockies), Rays ML, Red Sox ML, Marlins ML, Under 8 (Padres-Dodgers), Blue Jays ML
