Quick Recap:
• Record: 7-5
• Units: +1.7
• Best Win: Under 10 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 7.5 (-2.4u)
Joe Jensen closed July 4, 2026 at +1.7 Units on a 7-5 graded card — a winning day, but one that required some heavy lifting. The structure of the card leaned heavily on totals, with nearly every play carrying 2-unit exposure. That uniformity meant the wins and losses largely canceled each other in volume terms, and the net positive came down to execution on the right side of the ledger. The three losses — Rays/Astros, Mets/Braves, and Giants/Rockies — each carried meaningful risk and each busted in emphatic fashion. The wins, meanwhile, were clean and often dominant. This was a card where the graded results split sharply between blowout wins and blowout losses, with very little middle ground.
Pirates at Nationals
Pick: Under 10 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
The under here was never in serious jeopardy. Pittsburgh scored seven runs, but Washington managed just one — a James Wood solo homer — and the game finished Pittsburgh 7, Nationals 1. Braxton Ashcraft won his fourth consecutive start, and the Nationals’ offense was largely a non-factor. The bulk of Pittsburgh’s damage came in the second inning (four runs) and the eighth (two more), but the Nationals never answered. After backing Washington in game one of this series, Jensen flipped to the under in game two and it paid cleanly. A 2.36u risk returned 2.00u with room to spare.
Tigers at Rangers
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Detroit 3, Texas 0 — a shutout to open a new series, and the under was never threatened. Riley Greene’s two-run homer in the first inning provided all the offense Detroit needed. Jack Flaherty went 5⅔ innings allowing three hits, Tyler Holton bridged the gap, and Keider Montero closed out three no-hit innings for his first career save. The Rangers managed just three hits total. This was a clean, dominant under result — the kind of game where the pitching premise held from the first pitch to the last. The 2.24u risk returned 2.00u.
Jays at Mariners
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.08u
Seattle 11, Toronto 0 — the under at 7.5 was buried. Logan Gilbert was dominant, allowing one hit over 7⅓ innings, but the Mariners’ offense turned this into a rout. Randy Arozarena’s grand slam headlined a five-run second inning, and Seattle added two more in the fifth and four in the sixth. The total finished at 11. This was a missed read in the sense that the offensive explosion came from the winning side, not a back-and-forth game — the under premise had no chance once Seattle broke it open in the second. After backing Toronto’s ML in game one of this series, the model went back to the total in game two and got run over. The 2.08u risk was a full loss.
Orioles at Reds
Pick: Baltimore Orioles ML | Result: Won | Net: +1.00u
Baltimore 8, Cincinnati 5 — the Orioles delivered in a back-and-forth game. Samuel Basallo’s three-run homer off Hunter Greene in the first inning set the tone, and a five-run fourth inning put the game away after Cincinnati briefly took a 4-3 lead in the second. Pete Alonso went 3-for-3 with a double, an RBI, and two walks. Greene was making his first start of the season and didn’t survive the fourth. This was a lighter 1-unit confidence play — risking 0.98u — and it returned 1.00u cleanly. After a loss on the over in game one of this series, the model pivoted to Baltimore’s ML and got it right.
Sox at Guardians
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Chicago 3, Cleveland 1 — a tight, low-scoring game that the under covered with ease. Colson Montgomery’s go-ahead homer in the eighth off Tim Herrin was the decisive blow, and the White Sox added an insurance run in the ninth. The Guardians, who had won the first two games of the series on walk-off hits, couldn’t generate enough offense here. The total of four runs was well inside the 7.5 number. After backing Cleveland’s ML in game one, Jensen went back to the total in game two and it was a clean win. The 2.04u risk returned 2.00u.
Rays at Astros
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.44u
Houston 10, Tampa Bay 8 — the most damaging loss on the card. The total finished at 18, more than double the 7.5 number. Yordan Alvarez was the story: two homers, six RBI, and a walk-off two-run shot in the ninth to cap it. The Rays, riding a nine-game winning streak entering the game, led 3-2 after two innings and pushed the lead to 6-2 after three — the under was in trouble almost immediately. Tampa Bay had won game one of this series 3-1, which made the under look reasonable on paper, but Alvarez’s night made the premise irrelevant. This was the single largest loss on the card at 2.44u risked, and it stung. A missed read in execution, even if the setup wasn’t unreasonable.
Mets at Braves
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.10u
Atlanta 14, New York 3 — another blowout that torched an under. The Braves hit five home runs: Michael Harris II, Eli White, Mauricio Dubón, Mike Yastrzemski, and Austin Riley all went deep. White had four RBI, Riley three, and Harris drove in two. Chris Sale earned the win with plenty of support. The total of 17 obliterated the 8 number. The prior game in this series had also seen Atlanta win 5-3, and Jensen had cashed an Under 9.5 in that one — but the Braves’ offense came alive in game two in a way that wasn’t sustainable to handicap against. The 2.10u risk was a full loss. This qualifies as a missed read given how far the total strayed from the number.
Cardinals at Cubs
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
St. Louis 3, Chicago 0 — a shutout and a clean under win. JJ Wetherholt was the offensive standout for the Cardinals, going 3-for-4 with a homer, a double, an RBI, and a run scored. The Cubs managed no runs across nine innings. No ESPN recap was available, but the box score tells the story: three runs total, well inside the 8.5 number. After backing St. Louis’s ML in game one — a 17-1 Cardinals blowout — Jensen returned to the total in game two and the Cardinals’ pitching held up its end. The 2.30u risk returned 2.00u.
Giants at Rockies
Pick: Over 11.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.44u
San Francisco 6, Colorado 4 — a total of 10 runs in Coors Field, which fell short of the 11.5 number. The Giants scored four in the first inning, including a Willy Adames two-run double, and Robbie Ray went six innings allowing three runs. Bryce Eldridge homered and Luis Arraez went 3-for-5, but the Rockies’ offense couldn’t generate enough after Cole Carrigg’s three-RBI effort. The prior game in this series had finished Rockies 15, Giants 3 — a total of 18 — and Jensen had cashed the Over 11 in that one. The follow-up over at 11.5 in Coors made contextual sense, but the pitching held and the game stayed under. This was a variance loss — the premise was defensible, but the execution didn’t get there. The 2.44u risk was a full loss, tying Rays/Astros as the day’s largest single-game damage.
Sox at Angels
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost | Net: -2.24u
Boston 8, Los Angeles 1 — the under at 8.5 fell just short of surviving, with the total finishing at nine. Sonny Gray was excellent — six innings, one run, four hits — but Boston’s offense did the damage. Willson Contreras homered and drove in three, Romy Gonzalez also went deep, and Wilyer Abreu added a two-run double. The Red Sox scored three in the first and four more in the fifth. The Angels, losers of five straight, couldn’t generate any offense. The under was alive through six innings but Boston’s fifth-inning four-run burst pushed the total over the number. A competitive loss — the pitching side held, but Boston’s offense was too much. The 2.24u risk was a full loss.
Marlins at Athletics
Pick: Miami Marlins ML | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Miami 7, Athletics 2 — Sandy Alcantara was dominant, allowing one run on six hits with a season-high eight strikeouts over eight innings to win his seventh consecutive start. Otto Lopez homered, doubled, and drove in three runs to celebrate his first All-Star selection. Joe Mack and Kyle Stowers also went deep. This was a back-to-back ML play on Miami — Jensen had backed the Marlins in game one of the series as well, a 12-5 win — and Alcantara’s performance made it a clean, comfortable result. The 2.40u risk returned 2.00u.
Padres at Dodgers
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Net: +2.00u
Los Angeles 3, San Diego 0 — Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out 10 in seven innings, allowing three hits, and Freddie Freeman homered and drove in two. The Padres, in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, were shut out. The total of three runs was the cleanest under result on the card. After cashing an Under 8 in game one of this series, Jensen went back to the total in game two with Yamamoto on the mound and it was never close. The 2.16u risk returned 2.00u.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 0-1 on July 4 — these are lean/low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Brewers at Diamondbacks
The lean on Milwaukee’s ML at -148 didn’t cash — Arizona won 4-3 in what appears to have been a close game. At that price, the Brewers were the implied favorite, but the Diamondbacks found a way to edge them out. A tough beat at a steep number.
The graded card finished at +1.7 Units on a 7-5 record — a winning day built on a strong run of totals winners that absorbed three costly losses. The Tigers/Rangers, White Sox/Guardians, Cardinals/Cubs, and Padres/Dodgers unders were all clean and dominant. The Marlins ML and Orioles ML added to the positive side. The damage came from three plays that got blown up: the Rays/Astros under (18 total runs), the Mets/Braves under (17 total runs), and the Giants/Rockies over that fell just short in Coors. The Red Sox/Angels under was a competitive loss that missed by one run. The card’s structure — consistent 2-unit exposure across nearly every play — meant the wins and losses were roughly symmetric in risk, and the net positive came from winning more bets than losing. No single play rescued the day; it was volume and execution on the right side of the ledger.
Missed Reads: Jays at Mariners (Under 7.5), Rays at Astros (Under 7.5), Mets at Braves (Under 8)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Giants at Rockies (Over 11.5), Sox at Angels (Under 8.5)
Clean Wins: Pirates at Nationals (Under 10), Tigers at Rangers (Under 8), Sox at Guardians (Under 7.5), Orioles at Reds (Baltimore ML), Cardinals at Cubs (Under 8.5), Marlins at Athletics (Miami ML), Padres at Dodgers (Under 8.5)
