RBD breaks down Week 6 UFL betting action, highlighting trends, standings, and a key home underdog angle worth watching.
St Louis Battlehawks at Louisville Kings
UFL Pick and Analysis
As we enter Week 6 of the UFL season I still have my head above water with a record of 6-5.
I’m looking at buying at least two games this week, starting with tonight’s game in Louisville.
Before I get to picks and reasons let’s look at some basic stats from the league.
In the first weeks of the season, Favs and the Over had the advantage, but both trends have reversed.
Going into Week 6:
Favs 8-12
Ov 11-9
We’re at the halfway mark of the season.
Four of the eight teams will make the playoffs.
With a record of 1-4 the Birmingham Stallions and Columbus Aviators are not mathematically eliminated, but based on their record, talent level, and performance, they’re likely to not see any postseason action.
Be careful to avoid betting on either of them, especially if they lose this week because the “Quit Factor” is likely to set in (though I may give Birmingham one more chance this week. Their new quarterback lost but looked impressive in his debut last week and now that he has two weeks of practice behind him his performance can only improve.And I like the line on this week’s game.)
The DC Defenders and Orlando Storm both sit on top of the standings with records of 4-1.
After losing the season opener at St Louis, DC has reeled off three straight victories by impressive margins and seems to be the class of the league.
Orlando was undefeated going into last week but stumbled badly on both sides of the ball and lost SU as Hm Favs (and I had money on them, the rat bastards!)
One of the reasons I took Orlando last week was because it was a road game for St Louis.
Going into the game, the Battlehawks were 2-0 SU at Hm and 0-2 SU on the Rd.
Everyone who follows this league (re: me and about 10 other guys) knows St Louis is the only team who truly enjoys a home field advantage, attendance wise.
The books offered the undefeated Storm at home laying only three points.
I bit at the bait and it was FISH ON!
I was hooked, and reeled in.
But it was due to a poor performance on both offense and defense by Orlando rather than a solid road performance from St Louis so I’m going back to the same gut feel play today, playing AGAINST St Louis on the Rd and taking the Hm team plus points, hoping my gut feel doesn’t end up with me hooked, landed, gutted and bleeding from the gills again.
St Louis is 3-2, one game behind the league leaders.
Louisville is middle of the pack at 2-3, one game behind and chasing tonight’s foe, the Battlehawks.
It’s the first meeting of these two clubs, so no history to go on.
Both wins by the Kings have come on the Rd so they’re due to give the home fans something to root for tonight.
They’ve played two home games and lost both, but only by two points in each so getting a field goal looks appealing to me.
Two of the Kings three losses have come at the hands of first place Orlando, no shame there.
They come into tonight’s game off an impressive road victory of 22 points over a Dallas team that was 3-1.
I’m thinking they’re going to build on that victory and get a SU W tonight, to pull even with St. Louis in the standings.
I didn’t handicap early enough in the week and missed out on the best number.
The line opened at St. Louis -3′ but it’s dropping.
I got the Kings at +3 with 10 cents extra juice.
One last reason for the play.
I put extra time into handicapping the UFL this week, running all the games through my standard models for picking Wrong Favorites.
I found three games that would have qualified.
The record is 2-1.
The subcategory of Hm/Rd has a record of 1-0 when it’s a Hm team and Louisville is at Hm tonight.
My play:
Louisville +3
Recap: 1-1
Record: 6-5
Review: I nailed my analysis on Birmingham.
I mean, come on, really – WHO bets on a team starting a quarterback that’s only been with the team for 5 days??!!
Missed with Orlando, who lost SU at Hm to the visiting Battlehawks in my second pick, but I’m getting revenge against St. Louis tonight.
Be sure to check the forum section at PredictEm for additional UFL picks this week.
