Quick Recap:
• Record: 8-3
• Units: +8.9
• Best Win: Washington Nationals ML (+2.7u)
• Tough Loss: New York Yankees ML (-2.0u)
Joe Jensen posted a strong +8.9-unit performance on April 29, finishing 8-3 across his graded card. The night’s success came down to smart unit allocation and a high conversion rate on the two-unit plays. Jensen went 4-2 on his two-unit positions, which provided the cushion needed to absorb losses on the Yankees, Rays, and Twins. With eight wins across eleven graded plays, the card delivered both volume and efficiency—a combination that turned a solid win rate into a decisive unit profit.
Yankees at Rangers
Pick: New York Yankees ML (-116, 2 units)
Result: Lost
Final Score: New York Yankees 0, Texas Rangers 3
After backing the Yankees successfully the day before in a 3-2 win, Jensen returned to the well in game three of the series. It didn’t work. Nathan Eovaldi dominated over seven scoreless innings, allowing just four hits, while Yankees top prospect Elmer Rodriguez made his big league debut and was chased in the fifth after Josh Jung’s two-run single put Texas ahead. Aaron Judge went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, and the Yankees managed only scattered hits against Eovaldi and the Texas bullpen. This was a two-unit miss on the AL-best Yankees, who were shut out and never threatened. A clean loss, but one that cost meaningful exposure at the top of the card.
Cubs at Padres
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML (-108, 2 units)
Result: Won
Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5, San Diego Padres 4
After losing on the Padres the prior day, Jensen flipped to the Cubs in game two and cashed a two-unit winner. Pete Crow-Armstrong drove in three, including a two-run homer in the fourth that gave Chicago a 3-0 lead. Jameson Taillon was dominant early, not allowing a baserunner through the first 4.2 innings before the Padres broke through with a three-run fifth. The Cubs answered with late runs in the sixth and eighth to hold on. Matt Shaw went 3-for-4 with a homer and a double, and the Cubs won their 12th in 15 games. A competitive game, but the Cubs’ offense provided enough separation to deliver a clean two-unit win.
Royals at Athletics
Pick: Athletics ML (-102, 1 unit)
Result: Won
Final Score: Kansas City Royals 2, Athletics 5
The Athletics snapped Kansas City’s four-game win streak behind Luis Severino’s dominant seven-inning outing. Severino gave up just one run and struck out eight, while Lawrence Butler provided the offensive punch with a three-run homer in the fourth. Nick Kurtz extended his franchise-record walk streak to 18 games, tying Barry Bonds for the longest such streak in nearly 80 years. The A’s built a 4-1 lead by the sixth and cruised from there. A straightforward one-unit winner with the pitching and power both showing up as needed.
Rays at Guardians
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (100, 2 units)
Result: Lost
Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 1, Cleveland Guardians 3
After cashing on the Rays in game two of the series, Jensen went back to Tampa Bay at even money for the rubber match. Gavin Williams shut the door, striking out nine over 7.2 innings and allowing just one unearned run. The Rays’ six-game win streak ended, and their offense—held to two runs or fewer for the first time in seven games—couldn’t solve Williams. Chase DeLauter drove in two for Cleveland, and Brayan Rocchio had three hits and scored twice. The Rays were competitive but never found a rhythm offensively. A two-unit loss on a team that had been rolling but ran into a pitcher who was simply better on the night.
Angels at Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox ML (102, 1 unit)
Result: Won
Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 2, Chicago White Sox 3
The White Sox completed a three-game sweep of the Angels with a walk-off win in extras. Trailing 2-1 in the ninth, rookie Sam Antonacci tripled with two outs to tie it, and Colson Montgomery delivered the winning single in the tenth. Mike Trout homered for his 10th of the season, but the Angels’ bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Yusei Kikuchi left after two innings with shoulder tightness, and the Angels’ losing streak extended to six. A gritty one-unit win for the White Sox, who found a way late and rewarded the underdog play.
Mariners at Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins ML (112, 1 unit)
Result: Lost
Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5, Minnesota Twins 3
After losing on the Twins the prior day, Jensen gave them another shot as home underdogs. It didn’t pay off. Cole Young delivered three late-inning RBI, including a go-ahead two-run single in the ninth that slipped past reliever Eric Orze and a diving Luke Keaschall. The Twins led 3-2 heading into the ninth but couldn’t close it out. Orze retired just one of five batters he faced in the decisive inning. A one-unit loss on a bullpen meltdown—competitive until the final frame, but ultimately a missed opportunity to cash a plus-money dog.
Sox at Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-130, 2 units)
Result: Won
Final Score: Boston Red Sox 1, Toronto Blue Jays 8
After losing on the Red Sox the day before, Jensen pivoted to Toronto and cashed a two-unit winner in convincing fashion. Ernie Clement and Brandon Valenzuela both homered, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 3-for-3 with a walk. The Blue Jays broke it open with a three-run third and added two more in both the fourth and fifth. George Springer returned from the injured list with a pinch-hit RBI single, and Toronto improved to 9-2 when scoring five or more runs. A dominant performance that delivered a clean two-unit win and helped anchor the card.
Rockies at Reds
Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (126, 1 unit)
Result: Won
Final Score: Colorado Rockies 13, Cincinnati Reds 2
After backing the Reds successfully the prior day, Jensen flipped to the Rockies and caught a blowout. Hunter Goodman homered twice and drove in three, Brett Sullivan added a three-run double and went 3-for-4, and Tomoyuki Sugano pitched 5.1 scoreless innings. The Rockies piled up 15 hits and scored in five different innings, including a five-run ninth. Cincinnati had no answers after falling behind 3-0 in the first. A one-unit winner at plus-money that turned into one of the easiest cashes of the night.
Nationals at Mets
Pick: Washington Nationals ML (136, 2 units)
Result: Won
Final Score: Washington Nationals 14, New York Mets 2
After backing the Mets in the series opener, Jensen pivoted to the Nationals as plus-money underdogs and was rewarded with a rout. Brady House capped a seven-run fourth inning with his first career grand slam, and Curtis Mead went 4-for-5 with a homer and four runs scored. Washington set a season high with 14 runs on 15 hits, and the Mets—who had won 8-0 the night before—had no response. James Wood drove in three and scored three more. A two-unit winner at +136 that delivered significant value and helped push the card into strong profit territory.
Tigers at Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML (122, 2 units)
Result: Won
Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3, Atlanta Braves 4
After cashing on the Braves the day before, Jensen returned to Atlanta as plus-money favorites and was rewarded with a walk-off. Matt Olson hit a two-run homer off Kenley Jansen in the ninth to erase a 3-2 deficit and win it. Jansen, who blew his third save in nine chances, walked Ozzie Albies to open the inning before Olson’s shot into the bullpen ended it. Tarik Skubal was dominant for Detroit, allowing just three hits over seven innings after giving up a two-run homer to Albies in the first. A two-unit winner that came down to the final at-bat and delivered plus-money value on a walk-off.
Diamondbacks at Brewers
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (104, 2 units)
Result: Won
Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6, Milwaukee Brewers 2
After backing the Brewers successfully the prior day, Jensen flipped to Arizona and cashed a two-unit winner. Nolan Arenado hit a three-run homer in a four-run fourth inning that put the Diamondbacks ahead for good. Ildemaro Vargas extended his hitting streak to 25 games with a pair of singles, and Adrian Del Castillo, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte all homered. Eduardo Rodriguez struck out four over 4.2 innings, and the bullpen held Milwaukee to just two runs. A clean two-unit win that capped the graded card on a strong note.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Jensen’s side plays went 0-2 on the night, with both lean recommendations falling short. The Dodgers, listed at -220, lost 3-2 to the Marlins at home—a chalk miss that would have stung had units been attached. The Pirates, another favorite at -146, dropped a 5-4 decision to the Cardinals in a back-and-forth game. These plays are tracked separately and carry no unit exposure, but the 0-2 mark serves as a reminder that even lower-conviction leans can miss when the market doesn’t cooperate.
Missed Reads: Yankees (shut out by Eovaldi, never competitive)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Rays (solid team, ran into dominant Williams), Twins (bullpen collapse in the ninth)
Clean Wins: Cubs, Athletics, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Nationals, Braves, Diamondbacks
Jensen’s April 29 card was a model of how unit allocation and conversion rate combine to produce profit. The 8-3 record was strong on its own, but the real story was going 4-2 on two-unit plays and cashing six of eight overall. The Yankees loss at -116 and the Rays miss at even money were the only two-unit setbacks, and both were offset by plus-money winners on the Nationals (+136), Braves (+122), and Rockies (+126). The one-unit plays went 4-1, with only the Twins bullpen loss preventing a sweep. The graded card delivered clean wins across the board, with most results aligning with the handicap and only the Yankees looking like a true missed read. A strong night that rewarded disciplined exposure and smart pricing.
