Baylor at Texas Christian Expert Pick & Analysis

by | Last updated Feb 11, 2023 | cbb

Baylor (18-6 SU 12-11 ATS) vs. TCU (17-7 SU 12-11 ATS)
When: Saturday, February 11th: 4:00 ET
Where: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena Fort Worth, TX
Point Spread: BU -2/TCU +2
Total: 149.0
Money Line: Baylor Bears -135/TCU Horned Frogs +110

The Baylor Bears head to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Saturday afternoon Big 12 action. The betting board lists Baylor as a -2.5 point road favorite with a total line of 148. Read on to get our Bay/TCU picks against the spread for their 2/11/23 game.

Line Movement

This game opened with the Horned Frogs as a -1 favorite, but early betting had driven that line up to Baylor -2/-2.5. The total has been on the decline, opening at 149.5, and has dropped to as low as 148 on some boards.

Last Game Info

Baylor picked up a victory over Oklahoma by a score of 82-72. Heading into the game, the Bears were favored to win, with a point spread of -9.5. The combined 154 points finished above the 140.5 total line.

TCU most recently fell to Kansas State (82-61). Not only did the Horned Frogs lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +5 point underdogs. The combined 143 points did not surpass the 149 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Baylor has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Bears’ offense is averaging 76.8 points per game while hitting 41.6% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field while allowing 68.6 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, TCU is 2-3 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 72.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.8%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 44.8% of their shots while giving up 73.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Baylor’s opponents comes in at 85. On the other side, TCU’s combined opponent power rating sits at 82.3.

How Does Baylor Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Bears have played nine road games and have a record of 5-4. In these contests, Baylor is 3-5 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.5%. On defense, the Bears are allowing 74.3 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.9% in these games.

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How Does TCU Fare At Home?

In their 16 games at home, TCU has an 8-7 record vs. the spread while going 14-2 straight-up. On offense, the Horned Frogs are shooting 45.7% on their home floor, leading to 77.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.6% in these contests. The TCU defense is allowing 61.6 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Baylor is averaging 76.5 points per game (57th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.3%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a TCU defense that has allowed an average of 66.6 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 42.0% of their shots vs. TCU. On the other side, the TCU Horned Frogs are coming into the game averaging 68.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.1%. The Horned Frogs will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.2 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 44.5% of their shots vs. the Bears.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Baylor has a shooting percentage of 34.5% while ranking 280th in attempts per game. The Bears will be facing a TCU defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 28.7%. TCU enters the game, having hit 30.4% of their looks from deep while averaging 5.59 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Baylor has allowed opponents to hit 32.4% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • LJ Cryer (Questionable) Foot
  • Dantwan Grimes (Out) Redshirt


  • Mike Miles Jr. (Out) Knee

Pick Against The Spread

It’s tough to overlook TCU’s success at home, but Baylor comes in smoking hot with only a five-point loss on the road in Texas as their only defeat in their last five games. They will be without starting guard LJ Cryer for this game, but Langston Love stepped in for him in the second half of their game against Oklahoma and put up 19 points. On the other side, we have a Horned Frogs team that will be without leading scorer G Mike Miles Jr., who put up 33 points in the victory over the Bears, and C Eddie Lampkin Jr., who added 15. Take Baylor -2.5