Big Ten Pick: Michigan at Illinois Analysis & Prediction ATS

by | Last updated Mar 2, 2023 | cbb

Michigan (17-12 SU 14-14 ATS) vs. Illinois (19-10 SU 17-12 ATS)
When: Thursday, March 2nd: 7:00 ET
Where: State Farm Center Champaign, IL
Point Spread: UM +3.5/Ill -3.5 (Bet it LIVE at Bovada Sportsbook!)
Total: 144.5
Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +140/Illinois Fighting Illini -175

The Michigan Wolverines will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in a highly anticipated Big Ten conference matchup. The game will be played at the State Farm Center in Champaign, IL, and will tip-off at 7:00 ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.

Line Movement

This game opened at -3.5, and early wagering has driven the spread to as high as -4 at some betting sites. The total hit the college basketball board at 144.5 and has since dropped half a point to 144.

Last Game Info

Michigan picked up a victory over Wisconsin by a score of 87-79. Heading into the game, the Wolverines were favored to win, with a point spread of -5.5. The combined 166 points finished above the 129.5 total line.

Going into their last game, Illinois was the betting favorite at -4.5 but fell to Ohio State by a score of 72-60. The combined 132 points did not surpass the 143 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Michigan has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wolverines’ offense averages 69.8 points per game while hitting 44.8% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 41.1% from the field while allowing 64.4 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Illinois is 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.0%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 47.7% of their shots while giving up 73.4 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Michigan’s opponents comes in at 83.8. On the other side, Illinois’ combined opponent power rating sits at 82.4.

How Does Michigan Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wolverines have played 13 road games and have a record of 5-8. In these contests, Michigan is 6-7 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.5 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.5%. On defense, the Wolverines allow 70.5 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 44.9% in these games.

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How Does Illinois Fare At Home?

In their 16 games at home, Illinois has a 10-6 record vs. the spread while going 14-2 straight-up. On offense, the Fighting Illini are shooting 46.0% on their home floor, leading to 76.6 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.4% in these contests. The Illinois defense is allowing 60.5 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Michigan is averaging 73.0 points per game (142nd) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.8%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against an Illinois defense that has allowed an average of 65.6 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.2% of their shots vs. Illinois. On the other side, the Illinois Fighting Illini are coming into the game averaging 75.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.3%. The Fighting Illini will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.7 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 43.1% of their shots vs. the Wolverines.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Michigan has a shooting percentage of 34.0% while ranking 550th in attempts per game. The Wolverines will be facing an Illinois defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 31.8%. Illinois enters the game having hit 36.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 9.23 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Michigan has allowed opponents to hit 33.4% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Jaelin Llewellyn (Out) Knee
  • Jett Howard (Questionable) Ankle


  • Jayden Epps (Questionable) Concussion

Pick Against The Spread

The Illini have won five straight at home and have a 7-2 W/L record versus Big Ten teams at the State Farm Center. Illinois has also won the last five in this series, straight up and against the spread. That said, their recent play doesn’t suggest that this is an easy win for them tonight. The Wolverines are hot winners of three straight and six of their last eight. The two defeats were close, losing 64-59 at Wisconsin and 62-61 at home against Indiana. We also have an Illinois team who has little depth at guard that may be without G Jayden Epps. Take Michigan +4. Bet your college hoops picks for FREE this week by scoring a 125% real cash bonus AND get a free half point everytime you bet your favorite team by entering bonus code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook!