Duke Blue Devils vs. NC State Wolfpack Expert Pick

by | Last updated Mar 4, 2024 | cbb

Duke Blue Devils (23-6 SU, 16-12 ATS) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-12 SU, 13-15-1 ATS)

When: Monday, March 4th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: PNC Arena, NC, Raleigh


Point Spread: DUKE -6/NCST +6

Total: 148

Money Line: Duke Blue Devils -247/+193

Notable Injuries

Blue Devils

  • Christian Reeves (Out) Ankle
  • Jaden Schutt (Out) Redshirt
  • Caleb Foster (Questionable) Foot


    Recent Form

    With a record of 23-6, Duke has been dominant this season, especially at home where they are 16-2. However, they have been solid on the road as well, going 6-4. Over their last 10 games away from home, the Blue Devils are 6-4.

    Coming off a 73-48 win over Virginia, Duke has won two straight games. They have been favored in 26 games this season, going 22-4. For the year, Duke has a scoring margin of +5.7 points per game on the road.

    This season, the over/under record in Duke games is 12-15-1. The average scoring total in their games is 147.7 points per game, which is slightly higher than the average over/under line of 146.5. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 141 points.

    As the favorite this season, Duke has gone 16-10 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS.

    North Carolina State comes into this game with a 17-12 overall record and a two-game losing streak. So far this season, the Wolfpack have gone 9-9 in Atlantic Coast Conference play compared to their 8-3 non-conference record. At home, NC State has gone 12-4 this season, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

    In the underdog role this campaign, the Wolfpack have gone just 2-9, and they are 15-3 when favored. In their last game, NC State lost to North Carolina by a score of 79-70. So far this season, the Wolfpack have gone 5-8 on the road compared to their 12-4 record at home.

    North Carolina State’s over/under record for the season is 17-11-1. The average scoring total in their games this year is 148.3 points, which is slightly higher than the average OU line of 147.2. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 157 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

    As the underdog this season, NC State has an ATS record of 5-5-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Wolfpack have gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.

    Against Virginia, the Duke had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 80.3 points per game. They scored 73 points and posted a field goal percentage of 49.2% in the game. Leading the team in scoring was Kyle Filipowski with 21 points. Tyrese Proctor also added 15 points for the Blue Devils.

    This season, the Duke defense has been impressive, holding the 47th position in the country while permitting an average of 66.8 points per contest. Against Virginia, the Blue Devils’ defense gave up 48 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Virginia only made 7 free throws.

    In contrast to their season average of 76 points per game, the North Carolina State had a below average performance. They scored 70 points against North Carolina and had a field goal percentage of 41.7%. The team’s top scorer is DJ Horne, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 17.6, while Jayden Taylor also maintains a PPG average of 12.2 leading up to the game.

    On the defensive side, North Carolina State is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 72.3 points per game. The North Carolina State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 79 points and allowed North Carolina to connect on 6 threes.

    Betting Trends

    • Duke has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 79 points per game while allowing 68. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
    • In their last three home games, North Carolina State has averaged 77 points per game while allowing 82. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
    • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Wolfpack have a straight-up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
    • In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Blue Devils have a straight up record of 10-0 and an ATS mark of 8-2.

    Crew’s Total Pick

    The Blue Devils are 6-4 in true road games this season, but two of those losses came back in late November and early December with the two recent losses coming to UNC and Wake Forest. That said, I think that NC State will give them all they can handle tonight. They play at a high pace and have similar offensive efficiency numbers to Wake Forest. Duke has an important game against UNC on deck and may not have the focus to put out a top defensive effort. Take the Over 149.

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