Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State: Key Factors and Predictions

by | Last updated Mar 27, 2023 | cbb

Florida Atlantic (31-3 SU 23-12 ATS) vs. San Diego State (27-6 SU 18-17 ATS)
When: Saturday, April 1st: 6:09 ET
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, TX
Point Spread: FAU +2/SDST -2
Total: 131.5
Money Line: Florida Atlantic Owls +112/San Diego State Aztecs -137

In the first Final Four game, the Florida Atlantic Owls (31-3 SU, 23-12 ATS) and the San Diego State Aztecs (27-6 SU, 18-17 ATS) will go head-to-head on Saturday, April 1st at 6:09 PM ET at the NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The current point spread has Florida Atlantic as a 2-point underdog, with San Diego State favored at -2. The game’s total is set at 131.5 points.

Line Movement

San Diego State hit the board as a -2 favorite and dropped to -1.5 before settling back in at -2. The total line opened at most of the betting sites at 131.5 and has held that number.

Last Game Info

Florida Atlantic will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Kansas State by a score of 79-76. The Owls also picked up an ATS victory as they were +2 point underdogs. The combined 155 points finished above the 143.5 total line.

San Diego State will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Creighton by a score of 57-56. The Aztecs also picked up an ATS victory as they were +2.5 point underdogs. The combined 113 points did not surpass the 134.5 total line.

Current Form

Florida Atlantic
Over their last five games, Florida Atlantic has a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Owls’ offense averages 80.0 points per game while hitting 48.4% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.2% from the field while allowing 63.6 points per contest.

San Diego State
In their previous five contests, San Diego State is 5-0 straight-up and 5-0 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 63.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 39.3%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 37.7% of their shots while giving up 56.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Florida Atlantic’s opponents comes in at 77. On the other side, San Diego State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 82.5.

How Does Florida Atlantic Fare On Neutral Courts?

This season, the Owls are 7-0 in games on neutral courts.

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How Does San Diego State Fare On Neutral Courts?

On neutral courts, the Aztecs put together a mark of 8-3 this season.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Florida Atlantic is averaging 74.2 points per game (106th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 45.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a San Diego State defense that has allowed an average of 63.6 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.4% of their shots vs. San Diego State. Conversely, the San Diego State Aztecs are coming into the game averaging 65.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.3%. The Aztecs will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 65.0 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 40.9% of their shots vs. the Owls.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Florida Atlantic has a shooting percentage of 34.9% while ranking 179th in attempts per game. The Owls will be facing a San Diego State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 28.4%. San Diego State enters the game having hit 35.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.03 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Florida Atlantic has allowed opponents to hit 31.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Florida Atlantic

  • No Reported Injuries

San Diego State

  • No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

What else is there to say about the Florida Atlantic Owls? It’s a true Cinderella story made for the modern day (although I do think they’d get beat by UConn if they face them in the Championship). The team is balanced, skilled, and steadfast. Furthermore, an Owls bet puts us on the same side as the oddsmakers (which is always a good thing), as they, too, think FAU win based on their +2 point spread and the public hammering SDSU. I’m betting on FAU on the money line and expect them to advance to the Championship game!

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