Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan St. Spartans Total Pick & Analysis

by | Last updated Feb 21, 2023 | cbb

Indiana (19-8 SU 14-12 ATS) vs. Michigan State (16-10 SU 13-13 ATS)
When: Tuesday, February 21st: 9:00 ET
Where: Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
Point Spread: Ind +3/MSU -3 (Special Offer for Predictem readers only: 125% bonus up to $400 with code PREDICTEM at GTBets!)
Total: 136.0
Money Line: Indiana Hoosiers +132/Michigan St. Spartans -159

On Tuesday, the Indiana Hoosiers head to East Lansing, MI, to take on the Michigan State Spartans. The betting board lists the Spartans as a -3.5 favorite, with the total line offered up at 135.5 points. Read on to get our breakdown of some key metrics, plus Rich Crew’s free pick.

Line Movement:

The Michigan State Spartans hit the board as a -3 spread favorite, which has climbed a half point to -3.5. The total opened at some betting shops as high as 136.5 and has since fallen to 135.5.

Last Game Info

Indiana is coming off a 71-68 win over Illinois. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as -6 point favorites. The combined 139 points did not surpass the 142 total line.

Michigan State most recently fell to Michigan (84-72). Not only did the Spartans lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +2.5 point underdogs. The combined 156 points finished above the 136 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Indiana has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Hoosiers offense averages 68.0 points per game while hitting 46.9% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 41.9% from the field while allowing 65.4 points per contest.

Michigan State
In their previous five contests, Michigan State is 2-3 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 62.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.9%. Defensively, they are allowing teams to hit 40.8% of their shots while giving up 64.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Indiana’s opponents comes in at 83.4. On the other side, Michigan State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 85.6.

How Does Indiana Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Hoosiers have played 11 road games and have a record of 5-6. In these contests, Indiana is 3-7 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 68.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.4%. On defense, the Hoosiers allow 70.1 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 41.2% in these games.

How Does Michigan State Fare At Home?

In their 15 games at home, Michigan State has an 8-7 record vs. the spread while going 12-3 straight-up. On offense, the Spartans are shooting 45.2% on their home floor, leading to 69.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.7% in these contests. The Michigan State defense is allowing 63.0 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Indiana is averaging 71.5 points per game (184th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 45.9%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Michigan State defense that has allowed an average of 65.3 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.9% of their shots vs. Michigan State. Conversely, the Michigan State Spartans are coming into the game averaging 72.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.7%. The Spartans will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 67.0 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 40.7% of their shots vs. the Hoosiers.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Indiana has a shooting percentage of 33.9% while ranking 570th in attempts per game. The Hoosiers will be facing a Michigan State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 29.0%. Michigan State enters the game having hit 37.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.18 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Indiana has allowed opponents to hit 31.9% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Xavier Johnson (Out) Foot
  • Logan Duncomb (Out) Illness

Michigan State

  • No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Total

Pick: The Indiana defense is good, allowing only Purdue to exceed 70 points in their last 11 games. They have one of the better team defensive efficiency ratings (.951, ranked 61st), even better than Michigan State’s (0.967, ranked 88th). They both also rank in the top 100 in scoring defense, with the Hoosiers allowing 67 points per game and the Spartans 62 PPG. MSU is even better at home, allowing Neb 56, Mich 53, Purdue 64, Rut 57, Iowa 61, and MD 58. Take the Under. Note: We oftentimes get asked which online sportsbook is the best. The answer is easy! It’s Bovada Sportsbook! They have a nice clean site, the BEST live betting platform on the web, FAST Bitcoin payouts, TONS of props and they’ve been around forever. They also offer a 50% real cash bonus up to $250! Dump your lesser bookie today and start playing with the best! —-> Bovada!