Michigan at Northwestern Betting Analysis & Free Pick ATS

by | Last updated Feb 2, 2023 | cbb

Michigan (11-10 SU 8-12 ATS) vs. Northwestern (15-6 SU 12-9 ATS)
When: Thursday, February 2nd: 7:00 ET
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, IL
Point Spread: UM +3.5/ NW -3.5 (STOP wasting your money betting on games at -110 odds! Start saving BIG bucks by laying only -105 at BAS Sportsbook!)
Total: 138.0
Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +142/Northwestern Wildcats -175

The Michigan Wolverines head to Evanston, Illinois, to take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Thursday’s Big Ten action. Northwestern is a -3.5-point favorite for the game, while the total is 138 points. The tip-off at the Welsh-Ryan Arena is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, and the game can be watched on ESPN2.

Line Movement

Tonight’s game opened with the host Wildcats a -4.5 point favorite, but that has slid to as low as -Northwestern – 3 depending on where you place your action. The total has been on a bit of a freefall, opening at as high as 139.5, and now we’re seeing some 137.5s at some betting shops.

Last Game Info

Michigan most recently fell to Penn State (83-61). Not only did the Wolverines lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +4 point underdogs. The combined 144 points finished above the 141.5 total line.

Northwestern most recently fell to Iowa (86-70). Not only did the Wildcats lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +6.5 point underdogs. The combined 156 points finished above the 150 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Michigan has a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-3-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wolverines’ offense averages 66.8 points per game while hitting 43.4% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 47.1% from the field while allowing 71.2 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Northwestern is 3-2 straight up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 74.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.1%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 47.8% of their shots while giving up 71.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Michigan’s opponents comes in at 82.9. On the other side, Northwestern’s combined opponent power rating sits at 81.4.

How Does Michigan Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wolverines have played ten road games and have a record of 3-7. In these contests, Michigan is 4-6 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 73.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. On defense, the Wolverines are allowing 75.7 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 47.5% in these games.

How Does Northwestern Fare At Home?

In their 15 games at home, Northwestern has an 8-7 record vs. the spread while going 11-4 straight-up. On offense, the Wildcats are shooting 38.5% on their home floor, leading to 67.5 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 36.9% in these contests. The Northwestern defense is allowing 57.6 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Michigan is averaging 73.0 points per game (142nd) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.8%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Northwestern defense that has allowed an average of 62.2 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.2% of their shots vs. Northwestern. On the other side, the Northwestern Wildcats are coming into the game averaging 73.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.7%. The Wildcats will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 70.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 43.7% of their shots vs. the Wolverines.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Michigan has a shooting percentage of 34.0% while ranking 550th in attempts per game. The Wolverines will be facing a Northwestern defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 36.0%. Northwestern enters the game having hit 34.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.35 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Michigan has allowed opponents to hit 34.2% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Jaelin Llewellyn (Out) Knee
  • Youssef Khayat (Questionable) Ankle


  • Julian Roper II (Questionable) Ankle
  • Luke Hunger (Out) Foot

Pick Against The Spread

I just don’t get the line move. Sure, Northwestern got smoked in Iowa, but that was on the road, and now they’re back in Evanston. They’re only 3-2 at home in conference play, but one of the losses was by three points to Rutgers. Michigan has been awful on the road going 1-4, with the lone win over a rookie-loaded Minnesota team early in the season. The Wildcats have been shooting much better in recent games, and if they can clean up their 3-point defense, they can get the win and cover. Take Northwestern -3.5. Bet your NCAA hoops picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 by entering promo code PREDICTEM on the Special Promotions Page at Everygame Sportsbook after you’ve made your deposit and before you place your first bet. Everygame is the oldest and most trusted sportsbook on the web! (Formerly Intertops). Click here to score this special offer!

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