Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan St. Spartans Betting Predictions

by | Jan 7, 2023 | cbb

Michigan (9-5 SU 7-7 ATS) vs. Michigan State (10-4 SU 8-6 ATS)
When: Saturday, January 7th: 2:30 ET
Where: Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
TV: FOX
Point Spread: MICH +4.5/ MST -4.5
Total: 139.0
Money Line: Michigan Wolverines +160/ Michigan State Spartans -198

The Wolverines, fresh off two impressive wins in conference action, head to East Lansing to take on the Spartans, who are riding a solid five-game win streak. The tip-off for the match is set for 2:30 PM ET.

Line Movement

The odds board opened with the Spartans a -4.5 spread favorite over the visiting Wolverines, but betting action from both sides (sharps & public) has driven the line down to as low as -3 at some betting shops. The total opened at 140.5 and has now settled in at 139.5.

Last Game Info

Michigan picked up a victory over Penn State by a score of 79-69. Heading into the game, the Wolverines were favored to win, with a point spread of -4. The combined 148 points finished above the 141.5 total line.

Michigan State picked up a victory over Nebraska by a score of 74-56. Heading into the game, the Spartans were favored to win, with a point spread of -7. The combined 130 points did not surpass the 131.5 total line.

Current Form

Michigan
Over their last five games, Michigan has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wolverines’ offense averages 76.0 points per game while hitting 44.7% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 40.7% from the field while allowing 66.6 points per contest.

Michigan State
In their previous five contests, Michigan State is 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 73.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 46.6%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 36.7% of their shots while giving up 57.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Michigan’s opponents comes in at 78.9. On the other side, Michigan State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 81.

How Does Michigan Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wolverines have played six road games and have a record of 3-3. In these contests, Michigan is 4-2 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 79.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.7%. On defense, the Wolverines allow 76.3 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 48.9% in these games.

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How Does Michigan State Fare At Home?

In their ten games at home, Michigan State has a 5-5 record vs. the spread while going 8-2 straight up. On offense, the Spartans are shooting 41.9% on their home floor, leading to 72.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 35.6% in these contests. The Michigan State defense is allowing 65.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Michigan is averaging 73.0 points per game (142nd) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.8%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Michigan State defense that has allowed an average of 65.8 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 37.2% of their shots vs. Michigan State. On the other side, the Michigan State Spartans are coming into the game averaging 72.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.7%. The Spartans will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 42.8% of their shots vs. the Wolverines.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Michigan has a shooting percentage of 34.0% while ranking 550th in attempts per game. The Wolverines will be facing a Michigan State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 27.0%. Michigan State enters the game having hit 37.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.18 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Michigan has allowed opponents to hit 34.7% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Michigan

  • Jaelin Llewellyn (Out) Knee

Michigan State

  • Malik Hall (Probable) Foot

Pick Against The Spread

This game could go either way, but with the line moving down to -3, I like the home side. The Spartans have put together a nice 5-game win streak, and while not beating much, they did easily dispatch their Big Ten rivals, Penn State and Nebraska. They do a decent job on the boards, which has been a key to beating Michigan this season. They also play really good defense allowing the 55th-ranked FG%, 54th 3PT%, and the 100th-ranked scoring defense all while playing the 25th-ranked strength of schedule. Take Michigan State -3