NCAAB Predictions: Michigan State vs. Northwestern Pick ATS

Michigan State Spartans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (10-3 SU, 5-6-2 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 7th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena, IL, Evanston

TV: BTN

Point Spread: MST -2.5/NW +2.5

Total: 134.5

Money Line: Michigan State Spartans -149/+120

Notable Injuries

Spartans

• Jaxon Kohler (Out) Foot
• Jeremy Fears Jr. (Out) Leg
• Gehrig Normand (Questionable) Foot

Wildcats

• Parker Strauss (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Michigan State comes into this game as the favorite, with a record of 9-5 and a five-game winning streak. So far, they are 8-3 in non-conference games and 1-2 in Big Ten play.

In their last game, the Spartans took on Penn State and won by a score of 92-61. This season, they have gone 0-1 on the road and are favored in 11 of their 14 games.

Michigan State’s over/under record for the season sits at 7-7 and the average scoring total in their games is 142.6. Today’s over/under line of 134.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (143.2). Over their last three games, their games have averaged 155 points compared to their season average of 142.6. So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line of 134.5.

Michigan State has an overall ATS record of 8-6 this season. In their 11 games as the favorite, the Spartans have gone 7-4 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Michigan State has an ATS mark of 7-3. On the road, the Spartans are just 3-7 vs. the spread this season and they have gone 2-3 in their last 5 road games ATS.

After starting the season 9-1 at home, Northwestern will look to bounce back from a 96-66 loss to Illinois in their last game. So far, the Wildcats are 10-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play.

As the underdog, Northwestern will be looking to pull off the upset against Michigan State. So far this season, the Wildcats have been the underdog in three games and have gone 1-2 in those matchups.

Today’s over/under line of 134.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Northwestern’s games this season (135.7). So far, the over/under record for the Wildcats this season is 6-7. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 136 points and their OU record during that stretch is 1-2. On the year, 7 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line.

Northwestern has been a solid team vs. the spread this season, going 5-6-2. They are 5-4-1 at home vs. the spread and 1-2 in their last 3 games as the underdog. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Wildcats have gone 7-3 vs. the spread.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Wildcats hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -2 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 134 points per game, leading a 1-3-1 over-under record.

Analysis

Michigan State is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 92 points versus Penn State. This output is higher than their season average of 78.3 points per game. On the offensive front, the Spartans have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, ranking 52nd nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 157th in terms of percentage and 261st in three-pointers made.

At present, the Spartans’ defense is nationally ranked 34th, allowing 64.3 points per game. The Michigan State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 61 points and allowed Penn State to connect on 10 threes.

Most recently, the Northwestern offense finished with just 66 points vs. Illinois. For the game, they hit 8/16 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 41%. Offensively, the Wildcats have a season long field goal percentage of 46%, which is 150th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 58th in percentage and 154th in three-pointers made.

So far, the Wildcats’ defense is ranked 56th in the country at 65.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Northwestern’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 34.9% this season.

Betting Trends

• Although Michigan State has a straight-up record of 2-3 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 83 points per game in these games.
• Through their last five home games, Northwestern has an ATS record of just 2-2-1. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 61 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Wildcats have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Northwestern posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Spartans have a straight-up record of 8-2 and an ATS mark of 7-3.

Rich Crew’s Spread Pick

Michigan State has been shooting the lights out in recent games. They’ve shot 48.4% overall on the season, but that’s been bumped up to 54.5% across the last three. The Spartans are a five-game win streak SU and against the spread crushing all five opponents with a scoring margin hitting or exceeding 12 points in each game. They’ve also been playing exceptional defense holding all but one in the streak to 64 or fewer points. Included in that group were two of the top teams in offensive efficiency, No. 2 Baylor and No. 14 Indiana State. All that said, I’m not sold on MSU’s road game, so this is a small play.