Nebraska at Michigan St Odds, Analysis, Free Pick 1/3/23

by | Jan 3, 2023 | cbb

Nebraska (8-6 SU 4-10 ATS) vs. Michigan State (9-4 SU 7-6 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 3rd: 7:00 ET
Where: Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
TV: BTN
Point Spread: NEBR +7.5/ MST -7.5
Total: 132.5
Money Line: Nebraska Cornhuskers +261/ Michigan State Spartans -344

An excellent Big Ten match has the Nebraska Cornhuskers visiting the Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night. The spread is a reasonable -6.5, so maybe the host can buck that trend tonight. Read on to see what our capper is banking on.

Line Movement

The line movement on this game depends on where you place your action, with some sportsbook books offering the Spartans as high as -7.5 after opening at -6.5. The total has seen a big move up to 132.5 points from an opener of 130.5.

Last Game Info

Nebraska will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Iowa by a score of 66-50. The Cornhuskers also picked up an ATS victory as they were +4 point underdogs. The combined 116 points did not surpass the 150 total line.

Michigan State picked up a victory over Buffalo by a score of 89-68. Heading into the game, the Spartans were favored to win, with a point spread of -15.5. The combined 157 points finished above the 148.5 total line.

Current Form

Nebraska
Over their last five games, Nebraska has a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Cornhuskers offense averages 64.8 points per game while hitting 40.0% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.6% from the field while allowing 66.4 points per contest.

Michigan State
In their previous five contests, Michigan State is 4-1 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.4%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 37.0% of their shots while giving up 60.0 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Nebraska’s opponents comes in at 78. On the other side, Michigan State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 117.

How Does Nebraska Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Cornhuskers have played six road games and have a record of 1-5. In these contests, Nebraska is 1-5 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 58.5 points per game on a shooting percentage of 39.6%. On defense, the Cornhuskers allow 69.5 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 43.9% in these games.

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How Does Michigan State Fare At Home?

In their nine games at home, Michigan State has a 4-5 record vs. the spread while going 7-2 straight-up. On offense, the Spartans are shooting 41.3% on their home floor, leading to 72.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 34.9% in these contests. The Michigan State defense is allowing 66.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Nebraska is averaging 73.3 points per game (136th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 44.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Michigan State defense that has allowed an average of 66.5 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 36.9% of their shots vs. Michigan State. On the other side, the Michigan State Spartans are coming into the game averaging 72.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.7%. The Spartans will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 64.8 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 41.1% of their shots vs. the Cornhuskers.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Nebraska has a shooting percentage of 32.0% while ranking 366th in attempts per game. The Cornhuskers will be facing a Michigan State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 28.1%. Michigan State enters the game having hit 37.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.18 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Nebraska has allowed opponents to hit 32.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Nebraska

  • Quaran McPherson (Out) Knee
  • Ramel Lloyd Jr. (Out) Redshirt
  • Blaise Keita (Out) Ankle

Michigan State

  • No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

I like the dog here. The Cornhuskers are just 1-3 on the road but play defense, and while they won’t win the 3-point battle, they have the potential to limit the damage from their opponent. Nebraska keeps it close. Take Nebraska +6.5