Nebraska vs Iowa Prediction: Hawkeyes to Cover Big Spread at Home

by | Mar 5, 2023 | cbb

Nebraska (15-15 SU 9-21 ATS) vs. Iowa (19-11 SU 18-11 ATS)
When: Sunday, March 5th: 2:00 ET
Where: Carver-Hawkeye Arena Iowa City, IA
Point Spread: UNL +11.5/IA -11.5
Total: 153.5
Money Line: Nebraska Cornhuskers +473/Iowa Hawkeyes -703

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-15 SU, 9-21 ATS) take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (19-11 SU, 18-11 ATS) on Sunday, March 5th at 2:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA. The game will be televised on BTN.

The point spread for the game is set at UNL +11.5/IA -11.5, with a total of 153.5. The money line odds currently stand at Nebraska Cornhuskers +473/Iowa Hawkeyes -703.

Line Movement

The Hawkeyes hit the board as a large -10.5 favorite and were bet up to -11.5, with the Hawkeyes taking public and sharp money. The total opened at 153 points and has moved up a whole point to 154.

Last Game Info

Nebraska lost to Michigan State in their last game by a score of 80-67. But because the Cornhuskers were +4.5 point underdogs, they finished with an ATS win. The combined 147 points finished above the 138.5 total line.

Iowa will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Indiana by a score of 90-68. The Hawkeyes also picked up an ATS victory as they were +5.5 point underdogs. The combined 158 points finished above the 157.5 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Nebraska has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Cornhuskers offense averages 74.0 points per game while hitting 49.2% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 40.3% from the field while allowing 69.6 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Iowa is 3-2 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 81.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.6%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 52.1% of their shots while giving up 78.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Nebraska’s opponents comes in at 84.8. On the other side, Iowa’s combined opponent power rating sits at 83.9.

How Does Nebraska Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Cornhuskers have played 14 road games and have a record of 3-11. In these contests, Nebraska is 2-12 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 62.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. On defense, the Cornhuskers allow 74.1 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 45.9% in these games.

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How Does Iowa Fare At Home?

In their 18 games at home, Iowa has a 14-4 record vs. the spread while going 15-3 straight-up. On offense, the Hawkeyes are shooting 48.6% on their home floor, leading to 88.1 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 47.3% in these contests. The Iowa defense is allowing 75.3 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Nebraska is averaging 73.3 points per game (136th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 44.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against an Iowa defense that has allowed an average of 74.2 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 47.4% of their shots vs. Iowa. Conversely, the Iowa Hawkeyes are coming into the game averaging 83.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 46.4%. The Hawkeyes will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 42.8% of their shots vs. the Cornhuskers.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Nebraska has a shooting percentage of 32.0% while ranking 366th in attempts per game. The Cornhuskers will be facing an Iowa defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 36.0%. Iowa enters the game having hit 36.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 9.29 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Nebraska has allowed opponents to hit 33.9% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Juwan Gary (Out) Shoulder
  • Emmanuel Bandoumel (Out) Knee
  • Quaran McPherson (Out) Knee
  • Ramel Lloyd Jr. (Out) Redshirt
  • Blaise Keita (Doubtful) Ankle


  • No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

This is a ridiculous spread, but I think that Iowa is the right side here. Nebraska won by 16 on their home court in the earlier meeting, but Iowa has not played well on the road this season, going just 3-7 straight up and 3-6-1 versus the number. In contrast, they’re 8-1 at home with 7-2 against the spread mark and have beaten four of their last six opponents at the Carver-Hawkeye Arena by double digits. Another key point is that the Cornhuskers will be without two players that were significant contributors to their earlier victory. F Juwan Gray scored 14 points and added nine boards, and G Emmanuel Bandoumel, who had ten points and four rebounds, are both out this time around. The Hawkeyes are also potentially playing for a No. 2 see in the conference tourney, and combined with the embarrassing earlier loss to the Cornhuskers, and Senior Day should have them fully motivated. Take Iowa -11.5.

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