Notre Dame vs Villanova
Sunday, November 1, 2026
9:30 AM ET, Palazzo dello Sport, Rome, Italy
Villanova is a 7.5-point favorite over Notre Dame with the total at 147.5, and my play is Notre Dame +7.5 (-115).
College basketball’s first official game of 2026-27 tips in Rome on All Saints’ Day, a day ahead of everybody else thanks to an NCAA waiver, with Pope Leo XIV (Villanova class of 1977) the reason the whole thing exists. It’s a great story. It’s also two rebuilt rosters playing their first real game after a week of Masses, a papal audience, and jet lag. That’s exactly the kind of game where I want the points, not the chalk.
Villanova is better. Nobody’s arguing that.
Kevin Willard’s first year on the Main Line went well: 24 wins, a 15-5 Big East record, and an end to a three-year NCAA Tournament drought. The preseason computers like Year 2 too. Villanova sits 32nd in KenPom and 31st at Barttorvik, against Notre Dame at 83rd and 82nd. Torvik grades Nova as a top-25 offense and a solid defense. Notre Dame grades out as a middle-of-the-pack offense with a defense outside the top 90.
But here’s the thing: blend those preseason ratings for a neutral floor and you get something in the six-to-seven-point range, not 7.5. ESPN’s model gives Villanova a 73.2% chance to win, which lines up with roughly the same number. The market has hung the extra half-point on the better brand, and I’ll take it.
A brand-new Nova still has to find itself
Four of Villanova’s top five scorers from last season are gone. Tyler Perkins, the Big East’s Most Improved Player, is back, and Ohio State transfer Devin Royal has been terrific in exhibitions (22 points a game). The rest is new: UIC point guard Elijah Crawford, Cornell sniper Jake Fiegen, and 7-foot-3 Italian center Luigi Suigo, a projected lottery pick playing his first college game in his home country. That’s a fun storyline. It’s also a 19-year-old jumping from Serbian pro ball to Division I with the whole country watching.
Willard has used a different starting lineup in all three exhibitions, and the last one was ugly: a 93-71 home loss to Virginia. Kwame Evans Jr. (leg) missed all three exhibitions. He’s expected to play, but with zero game reps. Matt Hodge (ACL) isn’t expected to suit up, and backup big Nico Onyekwere couldn’t make the trip because of a visa issue. That leaves Nova thin up front behind Suigo.
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The Irish can shoot their way through the back door
Notre Dame is playing for its coach’s future. Micah Shrewsberry is 41-56 in three seasons, last year ended 13-18 (4-14 ACC), and the league picked the Irish 16th. Markus Burton and Jalen Haralson left through the portal, so Shrewsberry rebuilt with shooting. Penn transfer Ethan Roberts scored 16.9 a game last season. Braeden Shrewsberry, the coach’s son, hit 40.2% from deep. Brady Koehler is a 6-foot-10 sophomore who made 38.2% of his threes as a freshman.
That’s the formula for staying inside a number: make Suigo come out and guard the arc, keep the possession count around 70, and let the threes keep it close. Former Patriot League Player of the Year Braeden Smith runs the show, and the Irish split two road exhibitions, losing at Dayton and beating DePaul. Opening a season trailing by eight with five minutes left isn’t a death sentence when you have three guys who can get hot.
Why I could be wrong
Suigo is the biggest matchup problem on the floor. If Logan Duncomb, Notre Dame’s 6-foot-10 Winthrop transfer, is limited by the leg injury that kept him out against DePaul, the Irish have nobody to deal with Suigo on the glass, and second chances can turn a seven-point game into a 15-point one in a hurry. Royal has also looked like the best player in either program this fall. If Evans plays like himself right away, Villanova’s depth worries go away.
Projected score
Villanova 75, Notre Dame 70. The Wildcats win the game, Willard flies home happy, and the Irish shooters keep the Roman sunset from turning into a rout. I’d play this down to +7; at +6.5 I’d pass.
The Pick: Notre Dame +7.5 (-115)
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