Ohio State vs. Michigan Expert Prediction & Analysis

by | Last updated Feb 6, 2023 | cbb

Ohio State (11-11 SU 8-14 ATS) vs. Michigan (12-10 SU 9-12 ATS)
When: Sunday, February 5th: 1:00 ET
Where: Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
Point Spread: OSU +4/UM -4
Total: 144.0
Money Line: Ohio State Buckeyes +149/Michigan Wolverines -188

The Ohio State Buckeyes head to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines in Sunday Big Ten action. The Wolverines are listed as a -3.5 favorite with a total line of 143.5. The tip-off for today’s game is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET and can be viewed on CBS.

Line Movement

This line opened as low as Michigan -2, but public and sharp support has driven this line up to -3.5. The total line hit the boar at 145.5 and has fallen to 145 in the early betting action.

Last Game Info

Going into their last game, Ohio State was the betting favorite at -7.5 but fell to Wisconsin by a score of 65-60. The combined 125 points did not surpass the 132 total line.

Michigan will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Northwestern by a score of 68-51. The Wolverines also picked up an ATS victory as they were +3.5 point underdogs. The combined 119 points did not surpass the 137.5 total line.

Current Form

Ohio State
Over their last five games, Ohio State has a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Buckeyes’ offense is averaging 68.6 points per game while hitting 43.1% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 43.7% from the field while allowing 72.0 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Michigan is 2-3 straight-up and 1-3-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 63.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 41.3%. Defensively, they are allowing teams to hit 46.1% of their shots while giving up 65.8 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Ohio State’s opponents comes in at 82.8. On the other side, Michigan’s combined opponent power rating sits at 83.

How Does Ohio State Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Buckeyes have played nine road games and have a record of 2-7. In these contests, Ohio State is 2-7 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 70.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 41.9%. On defense, the Buckeyes are allowing 71.7 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 41.7% in these games.

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How Does Michigan Fare At Home?

In their 11 games at home, Michigan has a 4-6 record vs. the spread while going 8-3 straight-up. On offense, the Wolverines are shooting 45.0% on their home floor, leading to 73.6 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 40.3% in these contests. The Michigan defense is allowing 65.6 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Ohio State is averaging 73.8 points per game (123rd) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 47.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Michigan defense that has allowed an average of 69.5 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 43.4% of their shots vs. Michigan. On the other side, the Michigan Wolverines are coming into the game averaging 73.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 46.8%. The Wolverines will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 67.6 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 41.3% of their shots vs. the Buckeyes.

More Picks: Penn State at Nebraska Analysis & Free Pick ATS

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Ohio State has a shooting percentage of 37.3% while ranking 374th in attempts per game. The Buckeyes will be facing a Michigan defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 33.3%. Michigan enters the game having hit 34.0% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.35 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Ohio State has allowed opponents to hit 30.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Ohio State

  • No Reported Injuries


  • Jaelin Llewellyn (Out) Knee
  • Will Tschetter (Questionable) Illness

Pick Against The Spread

I’m going against the masses today and bucking some trends. Ohio State matches up well against Michigan. They can win the battle of the boards and, on paper, have a decent edge in three-point shooting. Take the points.