Big Ten Title Game Best Bet: Penn State vs. Purdue

by | Last updated Mar 12, 2023 | cbb

Penn State (22-12 SU 20-14 ATS) vs. Purdue (28-5 SU 12-20 ATS)
When: Sunday, March 12th: 3:30 ET
Where: United Center Chicago, IL
TV: None
Point Spread: PSU +6.5/PU -6.5
Total: 135.0
Money Line: Penn State Nittany Lions +224/Purdue Boilermakers -285

In the Big Ten title game, the Penn State Nittany Lions (22-12 SU, 20-14 ATS) will tip off against the Purdue Boilermakers (28-5 SU, 12-20 ATS). The match will take place on Sunday, March 12th, at the United Center in Chicago, IL, and is set to start at 3:30 ET and can be watched on CBS. The Boilermakers are a big -7.5 point favorite for the game with an O/U line of 134.5.

Line Movement

The Boilermakers opened as low as -5.5/-6 at some sportsbooks and has been bet up to -7.5. The total hit the odds board at 136.5 points and has fallen dramatically to 134.5 against public money.

Last Game Info

Penn State will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Indiana by a score of 77-73. The Nittany Lions also picked up an ATS victory as they were +4 point underdogs. The combined 150 points finished above the 140.5 total line.

Purdue picked up a victory over Ohio State by a score of 80-66. Heading into the game, the Boilermakers were favored to win, with a point spread of -8. The combined 146 points finished above the 134 total line.

Current Form

Penn State
Over their last five games, Penn State, has a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Nittany Lions offense averages 71.2 points per game while hitting 45.5% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 41.2% from the field while allowing 68.6 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Purdue is 4-1 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 72.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.4%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 44.2% of their shots while giving up 68.4 points per game.

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Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Penn State is averaging 64.6 points per game (391st) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.2%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Purdue defense that has allowed an average of 62.7 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.8% of their shots vs. Purdue. Conversely, the Purdue Boilermakers are coming into the game averaging 79.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 49.3%. The Boilermakers will face a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 43.4% of their shots vs. the Nittany Lions.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Penn State has a shooting percentage of 34.2% while ranking 268th in attempts per game. The Nittany Lions will be facing a Purdue defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 32.2%. Purdue enters the game having hit 39.1% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.74 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Penn State has allowed opponents to hit 33.3% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Penn State

  • Caleb Dorsey (Out) Undisclosed


  • No Reported Injuries

Team Total Pick

I thought Penn State would run out of gas yesterday, but they poured it on in the second half, and only a last-minute rally by Indiana had the score look closer than it was. I still think that they Nittany Lions run out of gas today, but the line is large, so I’m not going to go there. What I do think though is that Purdue will have no problem scoring today. The Boilermakers scored 76 points in their first meeting on the road and 80 points in the other at home. They shot over 50% in both games and destroyed the Nittany Lions on the boards 33 to 22 and 38 to 17 in the finale. In the first match, Zach Edey picked up 30 points, and six offensive rebounds. In the second, they somewhat contained Edey, who scored only 18 points but still had seven offense boards as Mason Gillis erupted for 29 points. Take Purdue team total Over 71 points.

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