Providence vs. Xavier Betting Analysis & Free Pick

Providence (17-5 SU 14-8 ATS) vs. Xavier (17-5 SU 12-9 ATS)
When: Wednesday, February 1st: 6:30 ET
Where: Cintas Center Cincinnati, OH
TV: FS1
Point Spread: Prov +3.5/Xav -3.5
Total: 152
Money Line: Providence Friars +140/Xavier Musketeers -175

The Providence Friars head to Cincinnati to take on the Xavier Musketeers on Wednesday night. Both squads are atop the Big East standings, tied with Marquette with 9-2 conference records. The odds maker has the host Xavier as a -4 favorite, with the total line offered up at 152 points. The tip-off for tonight’s game is set for 6:30 PM Et at the Cintas Center and can be watched on FS1.

Line Movement

This match hit the board with Xavier as a -3.5 favorite but has hit -4 at some shops. The total opened as high as 156 and dropped to 152 in early betting.

Last Game Info

Providence picked up a victory over Villanova by a score of 70-65. Heading into the game, the Friars were favored to win, with a point spread of -1. The combined 135 points did not surpass the 138.5 total line.

Xavier most recently fell to Creighton (84-67). Not only did the Musketeers lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +5.5 point underdogs. The combined 151 points did not surpass the 158.5 total line.

Current Form

Providence
Over their last five games, Providence has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Friars’ offense averages 73.2 points per game while hitting 47.5% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 45.2% from the field while allowing 68.6 points per contest.

Xavier
In their previous five contests, Xavier is 3-2 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 79.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.9%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 47.6% of their shots while giving up 78.8 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Providence’s opponents comes in at 79.9. On the other side, Xavier’s combined opponent power rating sits at 84.4.

How Does Providence Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Friars have played nine road games and have a record of 5-4. In these contests, Providence is 6-3 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 71.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.5%. On defense, the Friars allow 69.1 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 44.1% in these games.

How Does Xavier Fare At Home?

In their 14 games at home, Xavier has a 7-6-1 record vs. the spread while going 12-2 straight-up. On offense, the Musketeers are shooting 50.8% on their home floor, leading to 83.7 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 44.0% in these contests. The Xavier defense is allowing 72.9 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Providence is averaging 71.8 points per game (179th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.7%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Xavier defense that has allowed an average of 75.9 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 45.0% of their shots vs. Xavier. On the other side, the Xavier Musketeers are coming into the game averaging 73.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.6%. The Musketeers will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.2 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 42.7% of their shots vs. the Friars.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Providence has a shooting percentage of 34.3% while ranking 402nd in attempts per game. The Friars will be facing a Xavier defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 36.7%. Xavier enters the game, having hit 32.5% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.81 made 3s per game. On the other end, Providence has allowed opponents to hit 32.7% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Providence

• Quante Berry (Out) Undisclosed

Xavier

• Zach Freemantle (Out) Foot

Pick Against The Line

Providence has dominated this series as of late, winning the last three and covering the spread in the last five meetings. I think they have a good shot to extend both streaks tonight. The defense has been an issue all season for the Musketeers, and the Friars are coming in smoking hot, shooting 47.1% over their last five, including over 50% in their last two. Xavier will be without PF Zach Freemantle, 15.2 points on 58.5% shooting, 8.1 rebounds (team leader), and 2.9 assists. Some sharp money appears to be driving the line the other way, but that’s not where I’m landing. Take the Friars +4.