Villanova Wildcats (34-4 SU, 22-12 ATS) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (31-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) Betting Pick
Time: March 31st, 2018 8:45 PM ET
Where: San Antonio, TX
TV: TBS
by Keith, Professional College Hoops Handicapper, Predictem
Odds
Point Spread: Villanova -5
Total Line: 154.5
In this game, Villanova opened as a four-point favorite. Thanks to action that has come in on the Wildcats, we have seen the market rise by a full point. In Over/Under markets, the forecast is for this one to be a higher-scoring affair marked by an opening number of 155.5. Action on the Under has reduced this market by a point. On the Money Line, the Jayhawks are a +195 underdog while the Wildcats are the favorite at -230.
The primetime match of the Final Four will feature two number-one seeds squaring off in what is going to be nothing short of a classic from the eyes of many. The Villanova Wildcats and the Kansas Jayhawks will lock horns in San Antonio, TX on Saturday, March 31st, 2018 at 8:45 PM ET. The two clubs have met on five separate times over the span of the last 14 years. Over this period, Nova has won the last two meetings. The two teams have lived up to the expectations of a top seed in their respective regions. Kansas comes in off an overtime win against Duke where we saw the Rock Chalks close as an underdog thanks to a heavy public lean on Duke. For the Wildcats, Nova dominated the Texas Tech Red Raiders by a score of 71-59 in their Elite Eight outing.
There are several trends we have been monitoring in this game. Most notably, this is in the area of both teams recent successes. First, Villanova is 7-1 ATS in their last eight matches. Moreover, Villanova is 9-1 SU in their last ten games. In Over/Under markets, the Over is 14-5 ATS in Villanovas last 19 matches. Kansas has also fared well as mentioned. The Jayhawks are 10-1 SU in their previous eleven contests overall. In head to head, Villanova has gone 4-1 ATS against the Jayhawks over this period.
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The Jayhawks have the pedigree that always enchants takers to get on board with them. KU plays in a Power Conference that is one of the toughest in America to navigate, the Big 12. A common notion that surrounds this bunch is the narrative that Kansas is due for a National Championship. As a blue-blood of the hardcourt, many are backing the Jayhawks because they are long overdue to bring the nets back to Lawrence finally. However, in the match-up of the two teams, Villanova owns advantages in every major statistical category.
Villanova has a lot of luster in this contest because they have been so dominant. The Wildcats smallest margin of victory in this tournament is twelve points. Furthermore, Villanova has been a cash cow in this tournament which is something of a rarity given the tendency for top-seeds to be overvalued.
From the angle of public money, we have seen 64% of the cash and 62% of the ticket action come in on the Jayhawks, at this point. Additionally, we can determine that 70% of the consensus like Villanova in this spot. For the Over/Under, 65% of the ticket action is on the Over. Contrarily, 100% of the consensus like the Under in public forums.
Anytime the public gravitates towards an underdog, we are bound to take a closer look. Nevertheless, Kansas is a name-brand basketball club and bound to entice action by their name alone as a tournament heavyweight. The hard-fought win over Duke was one of the tournament’s most visible games. Many saw KU battle back to beat Duke, and this is bound to encourage many to back Kansas in this spot. However, teams that enter off hard-fought victories such as these often create a phenomenon where when as a dog in their follow-up many jump aboard. However, this is frequently a popular let-down position. Furthermore, the Wildcats look very much like a team that cannot only steamroll Kansas but wins this entire tournament uncannily. We’ll swallow the points in this one.
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