Wagner Seahawks at UConn Huskies
Monday, November 9, 2026
7:00 PM ET, M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion
No. 4 UConn is laying 37.5 to 38.5 across the market, with most books dealing a total of 140.5. My play is Under 140.5.
Dan Hurley’s first college head coaching job was at Wagner, and he still talks about it like an old flame. “One of my favorite years I’ve ever had in coaching was year two there,” he said this week, per On3. “Year one was fun, but it almost killed me.” Monday, he finally coaches against the Seahawks for the first time, in the first men’s game inside the freshly renovated Gampel Pavilion. Nice story. The bet is on the scoreboard, and I don’t think it gets crowded.
Wagner’s offense has been a slow-motion car wreck
The Seahawks are 0-2, and the scores tell you everything: 50 points at Boston College, 57 at No. 14 Miami. They shot 30.4% in Chestnut Hill and 33.3% in Coral Gables, and they handed out a grand total of 12 assists across those two games. That isn’t an offense, it’s five guys taking turns. KenPom backs up the eye test, slotting Wagner’s attack 350th out of 365 Division I teams.
Coach Dwan McMillan is working with a roster that returned none of last season’s scoring, per The Low Post. Kareem Watson and Fairfield transfer Cam Estevez are the only real sources of points, and Estevez has scored exactly 10 in both games. Former Husky Youssouf Singare is back in Storrs as Wagner’s starting center, which will make for a lovely ovation and very few buckets.
Hurley’s defense eats this kind of team alive
UConn held Gardner-Webb to 46 points in the opener, and the Runnin’ Bulldogs shot 25.5% in the first half. Last season the Huskies allowed 65.2 points a game, 10th-fewest in the country. Now picture that defense against a Wagner team that couldn’t find the rim against Boston College.
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The Huskies’ own scoring needs context, too. They put up 85 on Michigan, but 30 of those came at the free-throw line, with Braylon Mullins going 10-for-11. That was a foul-heavy rematch of the national title game, not a track meet. Against Gardner-Webb, with a similar buy-game total of 147.5, the final landed at 132. UConn is also still without Solo Ball, who sat out both games and hasn’t been cleared from his wrist injury.
Then there’s the calendar. Ohio State comes to Hartford on Friday. Once this one is decided, likely early, expect Hurley to empty the bench and give run to deep reserves like Egor Amosov and Jacob Ross. Deep reserves tend to slow a game down, not speed it up.
The case against me
Hurley’s teams foul. He’s joked about it himself, and On3 counted 23 UConn fouls against Michigan. A parade to the line on both ends can push a total over without anyone running a fast break. Mullins also gave Wagner credit for pushing the ball in transition. If Wagner gets loose on the break and UConn piles up 90 by itself, I’m in trouble. Two games is a thin sample, so I’m treating this as a lean, not a hammer.
Projected score: UConn 84, Wagner 51
The Pick: Under 140.5
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