West Virginia at Texas Pick ATS- Expert Analysis 2/11/23
West Virginia (15-9 SU 12-11 ATS) vs. Texas (19-5 SU 10-14 ATS)
When: Saturday, February 11th: 12:00 ET
Where: Moody Center Austin, TX
Point Spread: WVU +7/UT -7
Money Line: West Virginia Mountaineers +245/Texas Longhorns -315
The West Virginia Mountaineers will look to continue their improved play when they head to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns. The oddsmaker has the host Longhorns as a -6.5 home favorite, with the total set at 150.5 points.
Not a lot of movement in the early betting. The Longhorns opened at several betting shops as high as -7 and have fallen to a consensus line of -6.5. The total has been on the decline, originally listed at 151.5, down a point to 150.5.
Last Game Info
West Virginia is coming off a 76-71 win over Iowa State. Entering the game, the Mountaineers were favored at -5, resulting in an ATS push on each side. The combined 147 points finished above the 133.5 total line.
Texas most recently fell to Kansas (88-80). Not only did the Longhorns lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +4 point underdogs. The combined 168 points finished above the 146.5 total line.
Over their last five games, West Virginia has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 2-2-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Mountaineers’ offense averages 79.4 points per game while hitting 43.3% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 44.6% from the field while allowing 69.2 points per contest.
In their previous five contests, Texas is 3-2 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 77.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.0%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 45.6% of their shots while giving up 76.4 points per game.
Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played
This season, the combined power rating of West Virginia’s opponents comes in at 85.6. On the other side, Texas’ combined opponent power rating sits at 85.2.
How Does West Virginia Fare On The Road?
For the season, the Mountaineers have played eight road games and have a record of 3-5. In these contests, West Virginia is 4-4 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 75.5 points per game on a shooting percentage of 46.9%. On defense, the Mountaineers allow 71.8 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.3% in these games.
How Does Texas Fare At Home?
In their 17 games at home, Texas has a 7-10 record vs. the spread while going 15-2 straight-up. On offense, the Longhorns are shooting 49.9% on their home floor, leading to 83.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 41.7% in these contests. The Texas defense is allowing 67.8 points per game at home.
Offense vs. Defense
For the season, West Virginia is averaging 68.5 points per game (289th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 41.3%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Texas defense that has allowed an average of 68.5 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 42.5% of their shots vs. Texas. On the other side, the Texas Longhorns are coming into the game averaging 68.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. The Longhorns will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.2 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 44.3% of their shots vs. the Mountaineers.
From beyond the arc, West Virginia has a shooting percentage of 32.8% while ranking 519th in attempts per game. The Mountaineers will be facing a Texas defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 32.1%. Texas enters the game having hit 32.3% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.41 made 3’s per game. On the other end, West Virginia has allowed opponents to hit 31.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Injuries Of Note
- Jose Perez (Out) Eligibility
- Josiah Davis (Questionable) Wrist
- Rowan Brumbaugh (Out) Redshirt
Pick Against The Line
Texas is 4-1 at home versus Big 12 opponents, but they don’t always extend the margin going 2-3 versus the line and winning three of the four games by five or fewer points. WVU is 1-4 on the road against conference rivals, but three of their losses were close, losing to TCU by four, Oklahoma by one, and Kansas State in overtime by 6. They’re playing their best ball of the season right now, winners of four of their last five. The improved play of G Erik Stevenson has been a key component over that stretch and the key reason they keep this close this time around.
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