Alabama vs. Texas A&M SEC showdown with picks, predictions, and stats

by | Last updated Oct 3, 2023 | cfb

Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1 SU, ATS 4-1) vs Texas A&M Aggies (4-1 SU, ATS 4-1)

Date: Saturday, October 7th

Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX


Point Spread: Ala -2.5/TAMU +2.5 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 instead of -110?)

Money Line: Tide -144/Aggies +118

Over/Under: 49.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Texas A&M Aggies matchup in a SEC showdown at Kyle Field in College Station, TX. The over/under for this matchup is currently 49.5 while Alabama is favored by -2.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Alabama will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 24-20 win over Texas A&M. Alabama’s defense made things tough for Texas A&M up front as Texas A&M only ran for 70 yards. On offense, Alabama ended the game with 111 passing yards and 286 rushing yards.

Alabama Crimson Tide Recent Form:

Alabama’s record has improved to 4-1 following their 40-17 win against Mississippi State as they prepare for this week’s showdown with Texas A&M.

Going into the game, Alabama was favored by 17 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 57 points surpassed the over/under line of 45.

The point spread cover was the Tide’s third straight after getting what some considered upset by the Longhorns 34-24 as a seven-point favorite.

Texas A&M Aggies Recent Form:

Texas A&M’s 34-22 win over Arkansas moved their record to 4-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with Alabama.

When looking at how their game played out from a betting perspective, their combined 56 points resulting in the over hitting on what was a 53.5 point closing line. The Aggies also covered the spread as 6-point favorites.

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1

Betting Trends:

  • Alabama’s three most recent games vs. the spread has seen them go 2-1 against the spread.
  • Texas A&M is 3-7 in their last ten home games.
  • Texas A&M’s ATS record in their five most recent games as an underdog is 2-2-1.
  • Looking back on the last three times Alabama was favored, their ATS record was 2-1.

Line Movement:

In the context of the current moneyline odds, Texas A&M currently holds a 46% implied win probability, accompanied by a moneyline payout of +117. On the flip side, the Crimson Tide’s implied win percentage is 59%, with a moneyline of -143. Having initially opened as the 4.5-point road favorites, Alabama still holds the favored status, with the lines now at -2.5. The over/under market has witnessed a change since its opening at 52, compared to its current value of 49.5.

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Rich Crew’s Analysis & Pick

Alabama’s Track Record

  • Three consecutive wins
  • Covered the spread in the last two games
  • Four victories this season primarily due to a rock-solid defense

Alabama has been on a winning streak, sure, but let’s not forget that their offense has been less than stellar.
They posted mediocre numbers like 24, 17, and another 24 over a three game stretch after beating lowly Middle Tennessee in their opener. Sure, they dropped 40 on Miss St.,
but that came with a +3 turnover margin. And let’s talk about those 357 total yards; it’s the lowest yardage Miss St.
has allowed to any FBS team this season.

Texas A&M’s Defense: A Wall to Reckon With

  • Allowed 48 points to a strong Hurricanes team, but context is key (1 kick return TD)
  • 374 yards allowed through the air against Miami, but otherwise airtight pass defense in other games

The Aggies have a defense that’s not to be underestimated. Okay, they got hit for 48 points by the Hurricanes,
but one of those was a kick return TD. And while they did allow 374 aerial yards in that game, their pass defense
has been nearly impenetrable in their other matchups.

The QB Showdown: Tide’s Milroe vs Aggies’ Defense

I don’t see Alabama’s QB Milroe tearing up the Aggies’ secondary the way Miami did. The Aggies have been tightening
up their pass D lately, and I don’t expect any significant fireworks from Milroe.

Home Field and Experience

  • Texas A&M won and covered the spread two seasons ago on the same field
  • An experienced Aggies team that won’t be easily intimidated

The Aggies have been here before, and they’ve come out on top. They’re playing on a field where they’ve already
tasted victory and made some money for those who backed them. Intimidation? Not a factor here.

The Pick: Texas A&M +2.5
Given the above analysis, it’s a no-brainer for me. The Aggies’ defense will keep them in the game, and I don’t expect Bama’s offense to light up the scoreboard. Take Texas A&M at +2.5; it’s where the smart money is.

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