Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers Pick 11/23/19

by | Nov 20, 2019 | cfb

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (10-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 23, 7 p.m EST

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ARK +44/LSU -44 (BetAnySports - Home of 19 point college football teasers!)

Total: O/U 69.5

Outlook For Week 13

The Battle for the Golden Boot looks more like a surrender, as Arkansas comes in down a head coach following a humiliating loss at home to Western Kentucky. The Razorbacks have the misfortune of competing in the brutal SEC West, but this Arkansas team would have trouble in the Sun Belt, as it’s riding a seven-game losing streak and has beaten one FBS team all season.

Meanwhile, LSU looks like a machine. The Tigers showed no hangover after beating Alabama, as they dropped 58 points on Mississippi last week on their way to a rout of the Rebels that put LSU on the doorstep of clinching the SEC West. With a win here, the Tigers would seal up their spot in Atlanta for the SEC title game, putting them two wins away from a certain appearance in the College Football Playoff.

How the Public is Betting the Arkansas/LSU Game

The biggest line in SEC history has held steady at 44 points, while the total has dropped slightly from 70.5 to 69.5.

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Injury Concerns

Arkansas:
Defensive back Jalen Catalon is out for the season with an unspecified injury, while wide receiver Trey Knox is questionable with an ankle injury. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson exited the Western Kentucky game and is questionable.

LSU:
Tight end Thaddeus Moss is probable with an undisclosed issue while running backs Tyrion Davis-Prince and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are questionable with undisclosed injuries. Linebacker Michael Divinity is questionable after leaving the team to attend to a personal matter.

When Arkansas Has the Ball

The Razorbacks’ offense is such a mess that Arkansas has now tried four quarterbacks this season and gotten absolutely nowhere. K.J. Jefferson was the latest to play the position after John Stephen Jones’ first start fell apart, and Arkansas is seemingly out of answers. The Razorbacks would own the worst offense in the SEC if not for Vanderbilt, and as it is, there is little to fear from the Arkansas passing attack.

That said, if ever there was a game for them to get going in, this would be the one because the LSU defense has shown an alarming tendency to post some pretty wretched numbers. Giving up 41 to Alabama was forgivable, but they’ve also given up 38 to Vanderbilt and 37 to Mississippi, neither of whom are anyone’s definition of a great offense. If the Razorbacks get some competent play from running back Rakeem Boyd and the passing game, they could score enough points to land a backdoor cover.

When LSU Has the Ball

Incredible but true statistic: the Arkansas football team has given up a combined 198 points in its past four games. Meanwhile, the school’s men’s basketball team has given up a combined 183 points during its first four games this season. So what can the Razorbacks do to slow down Joe Burrow, short of asking hoops coach Eric Musselman to pull double duty this weekend?

Honestly, there’s probably not much the Razorbacks could do short of chaining the Tigers in the locker room — and even that might only hold LSU in the 30s. The Tigers boast the No. 2 offense in the nation behind Oklahoma, and there is little reason to think Arkansas and its SEC-worst defense have anything resembling a hope at slowing down the Bayou Bengals. The one hope Arkansas has here is that LSU coach Ed Orgeron could choose not to risk Clyde Edwards-Helaire and instead save him for tougher games against Texas A&M and Georgia, but even in that scenario, good luck slowing down Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson in the passing game.

Betting Trends

Ed Orgeron practically bleeds purple and gold with how much LSU football means to him, and one part of caring about LSU football means not losing to LSU’s traditional rivals. Orgeron has held to this well, as he owns a combined 12-1 record against Arkansas, Mississippi, Auburn, and Mississippi State since becoming the head man in Baton Rouge. Included in that is three straight wins over the Razorbacks, which have included two LSU routs and a tight battle last year in Fayetteville.

How about the spread? LSU doesn’t tend to take off two games in a row. When the Tigers have lost ATS this year, they’ve won the next week each time. On the other side of the coin, Arkansas hasn’t seen a spread win in over a month, with their last cover coming in Arlington against Texas A&M in September. The good news is that it is a rivalry game, but there’s no guarantee that Arkansas will have anything close to the mindset it needs to hang with mighty LSU after losing its coach and showing no fight whatsoever to keep him. In fact, the Razorbacks might struggle to do their part on the total, as the under has hit in four of the past five meetings between the two.

Weather Report

The temperature couldn’t be better for this contest, with kickoff projected to hit around 64 degrees with partly cloudy skies.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

LSU takes its game to another level in the dark at Tiger Stadium, and Arkansas is basically a dead team walking at this point. If any game could snap Arkansas out of its doldrums and allow them a chance to make an impact on the season, LSU would be the opponent for that, as the Razorbacks have stunned a ranked LSU before. In fact, five of Arkansas’s seven wins over LSU since the turn of the century have been an unranked Razorbacks squad putting everything together to stun the Bayou Bengals, and two of those came in Baton Rouge.

But those Razorbacks squads that shocked LSU came in with momentum. The 2015 team was on a three-game winning streak and needed a win to secure a bowl game. The 2007 squad was a tough, talented team that didn’t lose to anyone besides ranked opponents all season. There is nothing like that here. Arkansas has one and only one shot at a cover: that Orgeron is overly cautious after watching Alabama lose Tua Tagovailoa for the season and gets Joe Burrow out of the game as soon as the contest is decided.

Had that injury not happened, I’d be all over LSU here. As it is, I would rather not bet this game at all, because caution is likely to be the name of the game after what just happened to the Crimson Tide. However, if you must bet this contest, I’d rather have my money on LSU than trust Arkansas to try to stay within 45 points of this juggernaut when it just got routed by Western Kentucky. Give me the Tigers. Where are you betting the game? Does your bookie offer you discount/wholesale odds? Most aren’t aware that they could be wagering on college football (and pro too!) at -105 instead of -110. Ditch your overpriced book TODAY and start saving big money at BetAnySports! We haven’t had one complaint about them in over 10 years of advertising their sportsbook!

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