Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, September 19, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Beaver Stadium
Penn State is a 39.5-point home favorite over Buffalo with a total of 47.5. My play is the Under.
Penn State’s defense is the entry point here. The Nittany Lions are allowing 4.5 points per game, ranking first in the nation. Nine total points across two games. They’ve held Marshall and Temple to a combined nine points, and both of those offenses are significantly better than what Buffalo has to work with. The Nittany Lions are giving up 105 passing yards per game (4th in the nation) and 110 rushing yards per game, with just one touchdown allowed across all four quarters of their two games combined. That’s an elite defense playing at a championship level.
Now Buffalo’s offense. The Bulls opened the season with a 21-17 win over Albany — an FCS opponent that Penn State would have beaten by 50+ points. Buffalo needed a full four quarters to get past an FCS team. That’s not an offense that puts up 10+ points against a top-tier FBS defense. Realistically, Buffalo scores 3-7 points in this game, and that’s being generous.
Penn State’s offense will do their part too. They put up 45 on Marshall and 27 on Temple — averaging 36 points per game against real FBS competition. Against a Buffalo defense that’s given up 21+ points to a bad FCS opponent, Penn State should score in the mid-to-high 30s. If Penn State scores 35-42 and Buffalo counters with 3-7, we’re at 38-49 total points. Right at or under the current total.
The Franklin coaching factor also supports the Under. James Franklin pulls his starters in blowouts as soon as the game gets out of hand. He isn’t the type to run up scores on inferior competition — he protects his roster and lets the backups grind out the clock. If Penn State builds a 28-3 lead by halftime (which is very likely given the talent gap), the second half becomes a controlled scoring environment where Penn State’s backup offense grinds out drives with running plays rather than aggressive passing.
Realistic outcomes: Penn State 34, Buffalo 3 (37 total); Penn State 38, Buffalo 7 (45 total); Penn State 42, Buffalo 6 (48 total); or Penn State 45, Buffalo 10 (55 total). Three of four scenarios stay under 47.5. The only way the Over hits is if Penn State runs up the score AND Buffalo produces on offense — which requires both an aggressive Franklin approach and a Buffalo offense finally clicking.
I considered the side. Buffalo +39.5 is a lot of points, and the backdoor cover potential is real given that Franklin pulls starters. But 39.5 requires Penn State to win by 40+ for the fade to fail, and given how conservative Franklin gets in the fourth quarter, keeping the margin inside 39.5 is very achievable for the Bulls. The total offers cleaner value with less exposure to specific coaching decisions.
The Pick: Buffalo/Penn State Under 47.5. Bet your Week 3 college football picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
