Georgia State at App State
Prediction and Analysis
BIG week coming up.
After my O’fer last week I’m in the red, two games under .500.
I need to stop the bleeding.
First buy I’ll make is Georgia State at App State. According to my numbers, Georgia State has a 67% chance of covering the spread in this one.
SU: Geo St 4-4, App St 5-3
Slight edge, Mountaineers.
ATS: Geo St 5-3, App St 5-3
No edge either team.
Geo St SU on the Rd: 1-3
App St SU at Hm: 3-2 (note – one game was against an FCS opponent)
Edge, Mountaineers.
Geo St as Dogs: 2-1
App St as Favs: 1-2
Slight edge, Geo St.
SOS (Strength of Schedule):
Geo St 124
App St 100
Slight edge, Mountaineers.
Momentum:
Geo St has lost three straight.
App St lost their last game and two of their last four.
No edge.
Recent H2H (Head to Head):
Last year, App State won 41-20 as -2′ Rd Favs.
Two years back, App St won 33-26.
Edge, Mountaineers.
Well, there you have it.
Any/every way you look at this game says App State covers, which is why the line opened at -3′ and already by mid-week it’s been bought up to -5’/-6.
But if sports betting was a simple matter of just going with the team with the better stats, most bettors would win, and books would lose.
Most bettors don’t win.
Yes, the standard stats all point to the Mountaineers, BUT, there’s this – if App State was laying six points in every game this season, like they are in this one, they’d have a record of 1-6.
And the one game that would have covered was when they faced the FCS team, Maine.
And more importantly there’s this – in the Mountaineers last game, a 16-3 loss, they were totally dominated in the time of possession battle, 44 minutes to 16.
44-16!!!
And what is Georgia State’s strength?
Of 138 teams ranked, the Panthers are just outside the top 25 in rushing offense.
They’re sitting at number 26, averaging 187.5 per game, which means I have a good chance of dominating the clock in this game, which makes getting six points valuable.
And one more thing.
As noted above, App St lost their last game and two of their last four.
But in one of those two games they didn’t really win as much as the other team lost.
Because the other team was James Madison.
Yes, the Dukes, whose head coach Billy Napier’s lousy clock management, inability to put away teams at half time, and consistently moronic play calling that sees them blow double digit leads has James Madison fans sadly, suddenly, understanding why Florida fired him.
There will likely be a buyback on this one, so I’ll be monitoring it closely. I highly doubt it will get to +7 but as long as it’s moving in my favor I don’t need to buy it this morning. Maybe I can pick up a hook.
My play: Geo St (wait to buy)
Record: 15-17
Forgot to mention in my weekly review article, in the Northwestern/Oregon game.
I had the ‘Cats +3’.
I was down by 8 points late in Q4.
I had a chance.
I had the ball.
I had two minutes on the clock.
I had all three timeouts.
I had a defense that was up by 8 points and playing soft, keeping everything in front of them.
Unfortunately, I also had Chip Kelly in charge of the offense.
Watching it on TV I thought, “I should just change the channel right now, I know what’s going to happen.”
And, sure enough, against that soft defense in their final drive, Kelly’s play calling didn’t manage to pick up a single yard.
In fact, they LOST nine yards on their possession.
Some things never change.
