Georgia at Ole Miss
Saturday, November 7, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Georgia is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5. My play is Georgia -3.5 (-110).
How often do you get the No. 1 team in SP+ laying less than a field goal and a hook? This line opened at 4.5 and the market has pushed it down to 3.5. I get why. Ole Miss has won 16 straight at home, Trinidad Chambliss is a problem, and Kirby Smart is 0-2 in Oxford as Georgia’s head coach. And Ole Miss is the team that ended Georgia’s season last January, 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal. That’s plenty of reasons to fear Ole Miss. I think they’ve pushed this number too far.
The ratings say this line is too short
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, which measure how efficient a team is after adjusting for opponents, have Georgia at 28.1, best in the country. Ole Miss sits 13th at 17.1. That’s roughly an 11-point gap on a neutral field. Give Ole Miss a full home-field bump and you’re still looking at Georgia by a touchdown or more. The details back that up. Georgia’s defense ranks second in SP+ and allows 14.9 points per game. Ole Miss’s defense ranks 39th and gives up 24.0.
The matchup that decides this is in the trenches. Georgia runs for 200.1 yards a game with a deep backfield of Nate Frazier, Dwight Phillips Jr. and Bo Walker. Ole Miss gives up 148.9 rushing yards per game, and Florida ran for more than 300 on the Rebels in a 52-28 rout. If Mike Bobo stays patient with the run, Georgia can control the clock and keep Chambliss on the sideline. That’s the best way to slow down a quarterback Smart says is “probably the best quarterback in the country.” Georgia is converting 51.6 percent of its third downs. Move the chains like that and you shorten the game.
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The other side of the ball has a big injury. Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss’s best running back, re-injured his left shoulder against Texas and reportedly has no timeline to return. The Rebels still ran for 224 yards against Auburn without him, so I won’t pretend they’ve lost their ground game. But Auburn isn’t Georgia. The Dawgs give up just 86 rushing yards a game. Without Lacy against a front like this, everything falls on Chambliss’s arm, and that’s what Georgia’s defense wants. Ole Miss has also committed 63 penalties this season, a bad habit against a team that punishes mistakes.
There’s a mental edge here too. Georgia went 3 of 13 on third down in that Sugar Bowl loss and has had nine months to think about it. As Georgia’s coach, Smart has won at every SEC stadium he’s visited except two, Ole Miss and LSU. This Georgia team has already won at Alabama, and a night game in a loud stadium isn’t going to rattle it.
Chambliss is why I’m not laying more
He threw for 362 yards against this same Georgia program in January, and Smart spent his Monday press conference praising his “anticipation of windows.” Ole Miss scores 37.1 points a game and has outscored its home opponents 149-51. Bobo has warned his offense about false starts in this building, and Georgia lost a home game to Auburn on a field goal, so this team isn’t perfect. Corner Ellis Robinson IV left the Florida game with a knee issue. Smart says he “looks good,” but a slowed-down Robinson against Chambliss would hurt. If this turns into a shootout, a 3.5-point spread can disappear on one late Rebels drive.
I still trust the better roster, the better defense and the better running game, and I like getting Georgia a point cheaper than it opened.
Projected score: Georgia 31, Ole Miss 24
The Pick: Georgia -3.5 (-110)
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