Indiana at Penn State Odds & Pick ATS 10/2/21
When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 2
Where: Beaver Stadium
Point Spread: Ind +12/Penn St -12 (Reduced Juice Sportsbooks - Betting on games at -105 is SMART!)
It’s a rematch of a crazy game from last season, decided on a controversial 2-point conversion in overtime, when Penn State hosts Indiana for a Big Ten East bout Saturday night. The Lions are 4-0 this season, after starting 0-5 last season, while the Hoosiers are 2-2, after playing 6-2 last season.
Penn State is favored by one of those funny numbers between key football numbers for this game. Who are we going with for our free pick?
Indiana-Penn State Betting Odds
This week’s college football betting lines opened Penn State at -11, with an over/under of 52. Early betting action then bumped the Lions to -12, and that total to 53.5.
Any bettors believing Indiana might win this game outright could get upwards of +400 on the CFB betting money line.
Indiana Betting Preview
The Hoosiers are 2-2 on the season after winning at Western Kentucky last week 33-31. Indiana drove its first two possessions of the game 79 and 81 yards to touchdowns and led 23-14 at the half. The Hoosiers then allowed the Hilltoppers to get within two points three times in the second half but held on for the victory. However, the Hoosiers came up short against the spread as 9.5-point favorites.
Indiana piled up 507 yards worth of offense last week but gave up 458 yards of WKU offense. The Hoosiers also won the time of possession by a huge 39:21 split.
Indiana opened this season with a disappointing 34-6 loss to Iowa, then beat Idaho 56-14, then lost to Cincinnati 38-24. But that game against the Bearcats, who are ranked No. 8 in this week’s Coaches Poll, was closer than that score might indicate. The Hoosiers led 14-0 early and 24-23 through three quarters, fell behind by six, drove to the Cincinnati 2-yard line but fumbled the ball and possibly the game away.
Penn State Betting Preview
Meanwhile, one season after starting 0-5, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 following last week’s 38-17 victory over FCS Villanova. Penn State scored a touchdown on its first play from scrimmage, led 17-3 at the half, then scored on the second play of the second half and eased home from there for the win. But the Lions never really threatened to cover the spread as 29-point favorites.
Penn State out-gained the Wildcats 509-280, but that’s what you’d expect in a match-up like that.
The Nittany Lions opened this season with that 16-10 win at Wisconsin, although that doesn’t look as good now, thanks to the Badgers struggles. Penn State then beat Ball State 44-13, covering at -23, then beat Auburn in a good Big Ten-SEC match-up 28-20, covering at -4.
More Picks: Get Dan’s OU/KSU Predicted Point Sprtead Winner
Indiana-Penn State Recent History
Penn State beat Indiana six times in a row from 2014-19 but only played 3-2-1 ATS as the Hoosiers kept several games close as underdogs. Then last year, Indiana put a stop to that skid by outlasting the Nittany Lions in Bloomington in overtime 36-35.
Penn State out-gained the Hoosiers that day 488-211 and dominated the time of possession by a 40:20 split but turned the ball over three times, which basically cost them 13 points. In the very end, Indiana won the game on an iffy 2-point conversion in the OT.
Also, that game played over a total of 62 but needed overtime to do it.
College Football Betting Trends
So far, this CFB betting season teams ranked in the Coaches’ Top 25 are 61-10 SU but only 31-38 ATS against unranked opponents.
Overs are 3-1 in Hoosiers games this season, which are averaging 59 total points.
The Under is 3-1 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 47 points.
Overs are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams.
Free College Football Betting Pick
Penn State was the better team when these teams met last year and still is. Also, the Lions kind of sleep-walked through last week’s game against Villanova; we expect a sharper performance this week. And while we don’t consider revenge a reliable handicapping factor, it might come into play here. Meanwhile, Indiana is finding it a little harder to find magic this season and just gave up 458 yards to Western Kentucky. We like Penn State here, minus the points. Bet your Week 5 college football picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow!
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