Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Analysis & Predictions

by | Nov 1, 2022 | cfb

Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3 SU, ATS 4-3) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-5 SU, ATS
1-5)

Date: Saturday, November 5th

Location: Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), Lincoln, NE

TV: ESN2

Point Spread: Min -15/Neb +15 (MyBookie – Use bonus code PREDICT100 to get up to a $300 real cash bonus!)

Money Line:  Minn -811/Nebr +530

Over/Under: 47

RECENT FORM

In Big Ten play, the Golden Gophers have a record of 2-3, while the team’s overall record is
5-3. This season, the Golden Gophers have been favored in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of
4-3. Their average over-under betting line is 40.75 leading to an over-under record of 3-4-0.

In their last game, the Golden Gophers are coming off a 31-0 win over Rutgers. In addition,
they added an ATS win as they were 14.0 favorites on the spread. To finish the game, the Golden
Gophers had a yards per-completion figure of 8.7 and a total of 122 yards through the air.
However, they did not come up with a touchdown pass through the air. The team ended the game with
4 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 253 yards on the ground.

Tanner Morgan heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating
of 96.51. So far, he has completed 97 passes for a total of 1286 yards. Michael Brown-Stephens
leads the team’s receiving corps with 19 catches for a total of 311 yards. The top option in the
run game for the team is Mohamed Ibrahim, who has carried the ball 170 times for a total of 955
yards.

In Big Ten play, the Cornhuskers have a record of 2-3, while sitting at 3-5 overall. This
season, the Cornhuskers have been favored in 4 games while posting an ATS mark of 1-5. Their
average over-under betting line is 42.81 leading to an over-under record of 2-4.

Nebraska is coming of a 17 loss to Illinois by a score of 26-9. The Cornhuskers entered the
game as 7.5-point road underdogs, making this an ATS loss. In the win, Nebraska completed 45.8 of
their 24 passes, 1 of which resulted in a touchdown. In the rushing game, the Cornhuskers did not
find the endzone, while finishing with a total of 60 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Casey Thompson comes in the game having completed 141 of 224 passes for a passer
rating of 91.42. [‘But, leading up to the game, he is listed as questionable on the injury report
(Hand).’] Trey Palmer leads the team’s receiving corps with 48 catches for a total of 782 yards.
The top option in the run game for the team is Anthony Grant, who has carried the ball 156 times
for a total of 743 yards.

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BETTING TRENDS

Against the spread, Minnesota has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. Over this same period,
their straight up record is 7-3. Their last 10 scoring differential sits at +16.2, as they
averaged 29.6 points per game while allowing 13.4. The over-under record in these games was
4-6.

In their last 5 games away from home, the Golden Gophers have a straight up record of 2-3-0
while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 24.4 points per game in these
contests.

The Cornhuskers come into this week’s game having covered just 30.0% of their last 10 games.
Their overall record in these games is just 3-7. The team’s average scoring differential was
-4.2, as they averaged 26.6 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 30.8 points.
Their last 10 over-under record is 4-5.

When looking at their past 5 home matchups, Nebraska has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging
27.6 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Golden Gophers will look to improve their offensive
output, as they are ranked just 51st in the NCAA in points scored. However, they are matched up
against a Nebraska defense that is giving up 30.62 points per game and has struggled throughout
the season.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Minnesota offense that struggles to generate big
plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a Nebraska defense that has yet to
generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Cornhuskers are just 133rd in
sacks per game.

So far, Minnesota has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 11th in attempts per
game, with an average of 44.75. This heavy usage has led to an average of 223.12 rush yards per
game, placing them 12th in the NCAA. This week, the Golden Gophers will be facing a Nebraska
defense ranked 153rd in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 268.6 yards
per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

The Golden Gophers will look to once again play well defensively, as they are currently 4th in
points allowed at 14.38 points per game allowed.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Cornhuskers will look to improve their offensive output,
as they are ranked just 77th in the NCAA in points scored.

Offensively, Nebraska will need to do a better job picking up first downs in this week’s
matchup, as not only are a below-average team in 3rd down conversion percentage but is facing off
against one of the top-scoring defenses in the NCAA.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Nebraska offense that struggles to generate big
plays in the passing attack, is that they are facing off a Minnesota defense that is a below
average team in completion percentage allowed. In addition, the Golden Gophers are just 156th in
sacks per game.

So far, the Nebraska offense is averaging just 142.88 yards per game on the ground. This
production has come on an average of 36.5 rush attempts per game (64th). This week, the
Cornhuskers will be facing a Minnesota defense that is 30th in rush yards allowed per game. So
far, they have averaged 127.75 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

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