Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Sanford Stadium
Georgia is a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 at most books, and my play is Under 47.5.
Jamal Roberts leads the SEC in rushing with 1,071 yards. Against the two best defenses Missouri has played, he ran for 39 yards on 20 carries at Ole Miss and 66 yards against Texas. Now he walks into Athens to face a Georgia front that gives up 83.8 rushing yards a game. That’s the whole story of this game, and it points to a long afternoon of punts.
Missouri’s offense has a ceiling, and it’s been found
No. 22 Missouri is a good team that piles up numbers on the teams it should beat. It hung 54 on Arkansas-Pine Bluff and 45 on Florida. When the opponent can actually play, the Tigers’ offense shrinks. They scored three points in Oxford, and they missed a 23-yard field goal after getting first-and-goal at the 2. Last week against Texas, they managed 20 at home and went 3 for 16 on third down. Add the Ole Miss game and that’s 9 conversions on 33 tries against real defenses.
Austin Simmons is a capable passer with 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions, but this offense is built to lean on Roberts. When he gets stuffed, Missouri ends up in third-and-long, and that’s exactly where Georgia wants it.
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Georgia wins ugly against people who can tackle
Top-ranked Georgia averages 41.1 points, but much of that came against Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Look at its games against real competition: 20-17 at Alabama, a 27-24 home loss to Auburn, 27-8 against Florida. The Bulldogs grind. They run for 210.7 yards a game and are perfectly happy to keep the clock moving with a big lead.
Yes, they just dropped 42 on Ole Miss in Oxford, rushing for 295 yards and taking a 28-0 halftime lead. But that blowout came against a defense that couldn’t hold the line. Missouri’s can. The Tigers give up 95.8 rushing yards a game and 20.1 points overall, and Daeden Hopkins has seven sacks. This won’t be a track meet. Kirby Smart’s team will try to wear the Tigers down, not outrun them.
The cleanest way to bet that is the total. Georgia’s defense allows 14 points a game, and Missouri’s offense against quality opponents hasn’t cleared 20 in its last two tries. Georgia has the talent to cover a big number, but the spread already jumped from 12.5 to 15.5. The total has only crept up a point, from 46.5 to 47.5, and that’s the number I want. Kickoff should be dry and around 55 degrees, so weather won’t bail out either side.
What could go wrong
Georgia’s offense has a big-play gear. Talyn Taylor had touchdown catches of 58 and 65 yards last week, and Gunner Stockton has 20 touchdown passes against only four picks. A couple of quick strikes, or a short field after a Missouri turnover, can push Georgia into the mid-30s alone. Simmons can also hit the home run; his 75-yard touchdown to Naeshaun Montgomery against Texas proves it. And if this turns into a blowout, garbage-time touchdowns against backups are the classic way an under dies late.
Projected score: Georgia 30, Missouri 13
The Pick: Under 47.5 (-112)
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