Missouri State at Texas A&M
Game Prediction on the Total
“The scales of justice may tip one way or another but ultimately they balance out.”
Sir Wilfrid (Charles Laughton)
One of my favorite quotes, from one of my favorite movies, “Witness for the Prosecution” (watch it if you haven’t already.)
And it’s a relevant lesson for sports bettors, another way of saying something you see me mention all the time in my articles, “Reversion Toward the Mean.”
Understanding what it means, and applying it to your handicapping process, will improve your bottom line.
I’ll give you a recent example. There’s a football betting system, often quoted, commonly known (not one of my unique models):
“Bet ON Week 1 Favs of 37 points or more.”
Over the past 5 years, FBS teams only, this play was 9-3, 75%.
But over the past two seasons the spot is just 2-3.
In other words, the Scales of Justice are balancing out, as they always eventually do.
In my July 25th article I listed the four games that qualified this season, along with the only game I bought.
But a fifth game qualified after line moves on game day Week Zero.
USC open at-35′ and they closed at -37′.
They won 42-26, failing to cover (and by more than 20 points)
I have three take aways from this game that I want to share with you.
One – the play that WAS winning at a 77% clip is now 2-4 in the last six games that qualified.
“Reversion toward the mean!”
Two – USC/San Jose State was an added game.
I need to go back to my database and see which of these “Favs of 37 or more” opened and stayed at 37 or higher, and which games opened with a smaller number and were ADDED because the line went up.
THAT’S what handicapping is – always looking for new angles and subcategories that can increase your profits.
Three – While keeping with the recent trend and failing to cover ATS, the game went Over the posted total.
In the last three seasons, ’23, ’24, ’25, the Ov/Un in this spot is 6-1-1.
This year there are five games that qualify including the added spot with USC.
Four games are yet to be played but USC played in week zero and the game went Over, making the total 7-1 for recent play.
In other words, while Reversion Toward the Mean may be setting in on the side, the total is still going strong for plays on the Over.
Of the four remaining games, I’ve already bought and posted an article on the Over in one of them, N Tex/Indiana.
Here’s my take on the other three.
Ohio State -49′, 56′ vs Ball St
Last season Ohio State was not only the number one defense for PPG but they held opponents to single digits at 9.7!
I read this as meaning to get to the Over in this game I’m going to need 57 points from Ohio State.
And there’s another problem with this spot.
It qualifies as a play for the handicapping model I call the NP Under.
In my next article I’ll give you the six year record for this play, AND the two spots that qualify for this coming weekend.
For now, I’ll just say you don’t want to bet against an NP Under spot.
Oklahoma -40′, 50′ vs UTEP
Last season, Oklahoma ranked 6th on defense for PPG. Looks like another situation where I’ll need one team to get most of the points.
The Sooners were favored by 30 or more points twice in 2025. BOTH game stayed Under.
I’ll pass on playing this spot.
Texas A&M -41, 52′ vs Missouri State
The Aggies ranked 42nd on PPG defense, giving up 23 per game.
On defense, Missouri State ranked 95th, surrendering 30.3 points per game.
On offense the Aggies ranked 18th, scoring 32.6 per game.
Missouri State averaged 24.3 points on offense last season. Those numbers should improve under new head coach Casey Woods. As SMU’s offensive coordinator last year he had them ranked 20th, scoring 31.4 PPG.
I think I can get to 60 in this game.
My play:
Mizz St/Tex A&M Ov 52′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0
Review:
It was an early morning game so I didn’t have time to write up an article, edit, submit and get it posted. So I gave out the play in The PredictEm Forum, using Virginia -4 because my WF1 model said NC State should be the Fav. It’s a new season, so I don’t have any data to go on yet, but last year’s WF1 record on RD teams was 17-28, good for a 62% Fade.
Two games qualified yesterday, I gave them both out in the Forum and both Fades covered.
NEXT!!!
