Navy at Notre Dame
I like betting on teams that are pissed off, and there’s probably no team more pissed off than the Irish this week.
Last week they saw the end of their undefeated season.
Last week they lost when they gave up a touchdown with about a minute left on the clock.
I’ve already got a play on the total in this game (see my article dated 10/28) but the more I look at it the more I see a Notre Dame blowout.
And I think it starts right after the opening whistle.
Let’s look at some Notre Dame Q1 stats.
Week 1, 10-3 vs Wisconsin.
Week 2, 21-0 vs Rice.
Week 3, 10-0 vs Michigan State.
Week 4, 7-0 vs Purdue.
Week 5, 14-7 vs North Carolina.
Week 6, 14-0 vs Stanford.
Week 7, 3-7 vs BYU.
With a Q1 spread of -7 ND is 3-1-3.
Only one loss in seven games.
Now let’s add the “pissed off” factor into this equation. Let’s look at the Irish after a loss in the last two seasons.
In the 2025/26 season they lost two games.
Q1 score after their first loss, ND 14-7.
Q1 score after the other loss, ND 14-7.
In the 2024/25 season they only had one loss.
Next game, Q1, ND 14-0.
In 2023/24 they lost three games.
Q1 score after their first loss, ND 7-0.
Q1 score after their second loss, ND 7-3.
Q1 score after their second loss, ND 7-0.
Based on those numbers the odds say laying 7 is pretty safe.
Now let’s look at one last thing, Head to Head action. Let’s look at a couple Q1 stats when Notre Dame faces the Navy rushing attack.
2025: Q1, ND 7-0.
And the Irish held Navy scoreless in Q1 in three of four quarters.
2024: Q1, ND 14-0.
And the Irish held Navy scoreless in Q1 and in two of four quarters.
2023: Q1, ND 14-0.
And the Irish held Navy scoreless in Q1 and in three of four quarters.
Again, it looks like laying seven is very low risk.
And every one of those three Navy teams was better than this year’s version.
Based on all the numbers above, this bet has a very slim chance of losing at worst case, a very good chance at a Push, and a good chance at a win.
I found this bet at two books (Friday night) at -7 with extra juice. Most have the hook on it and based on the numbers above, for very good reason.
If you can’t get the -7 GET MORE BOOKS!!!
You have to have options.
If you can’t get the -7 buy the hook off the -7′.
Under the best of conditions this is a bad spot for Navy, who are 30 point underdogs, and rightfully so.
But facing an angry Irish team the Midshipman are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
They’re in for some pain Saturday morning.
And it starts on the opening possession for ND.
My play:
Notre Dame Q1, -7, -132
