Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction

by | Nov 24, 2021 | cfb

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 27, Noon

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: Fox

Point Spread: OHST -8.5/MICH +8.5 (BAS) <— They let you bet on games at -105. This saves you HUGE money over the course of the season and TONS of cash over the years! Excellent book!

Total: O/U 64.5


The Game has been one of the most one-sided rivalries in the nation as of late, as Ohio State has won 15 of the last 16 meetings with Michigan. Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, and Ryan Day have all taken turns torturing their grandest rival, and it hasn’t seemed to matter what Michigan does against Ohio State; nothing has worked for the Wolverines ever since Luke Fickell’s ill-fated interim year in Columbus.

The stakes couldn’t be much higher for The Game this year, as the winner will represent the East Division in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game next week, with Ohio State certain to make the playoff if it beats the Wolverines and then bests the Big Ten West champion. Michigan would need a lot to go right to have any hope at the playoff, and in all likelihood, the Wolverines are playing to both end Ohio State’s torture of them and to get back to the Rose Bowl. Michigan hasn’t played in the Rose since 2007, and everyone in Ann Arbor would be thrilled with ending Ohio State’s stranglehold on this rivalry, ruining the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes and making it to Pasadena. But Ohio State is playing its best football of the season, having just buried the Michigan State squad that Michigan couldn’t handle. With the Buckeyes firing on all cylinders right now, does Michigan really have a chance to end Ohio State’s reign?

How the Public is Betting the Ohio State/Michigan Game

The public isn’t buying Michigan’s chances in this matchup, as 57 percent of all tickets have come in on Ohio State. The spread has ticked up a point to -8.5, and the total has ticked up with it to 64.5.

Injury Concerns

Ohio State:
Cornerback Sevyn Banks (undisclosed) is questionable. Defensive tackle Jaden McKenzie (undisclosed), running back Marcus Crowley (undisclosed), offensive lineman Harry Miller (leg), defensive end Noah Potter (undisclosed), kicker Jake Seibert (undisclosed), linebacker Mitchell Melton (undisclosed), ide receiver Kamryn Babb (undisclosed), cornerback Jakailin Johnson (undisclosed), safety Jantzen Dunn (undisclosed), safety Josh Proctor (leg), defensive end Tyler Friday (knee) and safety Jaylen Johnson (knee) are out.

Running back Blake Corum (lower body), and wide receiver Ronnie Bell (knee) are out.

When Ohio State Has the Ball

Ohio State has put up some gaudy numbers at times, but they haven’t always consistently put up points. Against weaker defenses like Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana, the Buckeyes have had no problems lighting up the board, but against Penn State and Nebraska, Ohio State has looked human.
C.J. Stroud has thrown for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions in the past two weeks, but there’s a real question as to whether that was because neither the Spartans nor Boilermakers had any ability to stop the pass. Against Nebraska, Stroud threw for 405 yards, but he had to throw 54 times in order to get the job done. With Michigan sporting a top-10 defense and a top-30 ground defense, Treveyon Henderson is likely to be called upon a fair amount as the Buckeyes try to figure out what will work best against this defense.

When Michigan Has the Ball

There’s one way to hang with Ohio State’s attack: throw the ball all over the place against the Buckeyes’ weak secondary. Unfortunately for Michigan, the Wolverines are a running team, and they’re going to be heading straight into the teeth of the Buckeyes’ defense. Michigan had ridden Hassan Haskins all season long for 1,063 yards and 13 touchdowns, but with the Buckeyes’ strengths against the run, the Wolverines might have to rely on Cade McNamara’s arm to get the job done.

The good news for Michigan is that McNamara makes good decisions with the football, as he’s tossed just two interceptions against 14 touchdowns on the season. The bad news is that McNamara is far from explosive with the football, and the Buckeyes will almost certainly sell out to try to stop the run and dare McNamara to try to beat them with his arm. The problem is that Michigan really doesn’t have anyone who’s all that explosive in the receiving corps, as Cornelius Johnson is the best option the Wolverines have at just 539 yards on the season. There is no go-to receiver for the Wolverines, which could make it difficult if someone needs to take over the game.

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Betting Trends

Backing the defense has been a foolish option in this matchup, as the over has cashed seven years in a row in this matchup. Ohio State has also been the way to play this matchup for more than a decade now, as the Buckeyes have nine covers out of the past 13 meetings in this series, including six covers in their past eight trips to Ann Arbor.

That said, Michigan has been a cover machine this year, as the Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games this season and 5-1 ATS in their past six games at the Big House. However, there’s a caveat here: the Wolverines haven’t really done this against winning teams. Against teams with a winning record, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS in its past seven.

Weather Report

This is going to be a cold experience in Ann Arbor, with the temperatures sitting in the mid-30s at best. Wind won’t be a factor, nor will precipitation, as wind will only blow at four miles per hour going east-southeast.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Michigan’s defense has played well all year, but the Wolverines haven’t really seen anyone at the level of Ohio State. The Buckeyes have dominated this series for almost two decades now, and they seem to be playing their best football right now.
I’m not seeing it from the Wolverines in this situation. Give me the Buckeyes for the cover. Bet your Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction and ALL your Week 13 college football bets FREE by taking advantage fo a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!

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