Orange Bowl Pick: Georgia vs. Florida State Best Bet

Georgia Bulldogs (12-1 SU, ATS 4-7-1) vs Florida State Seminoles (13-0 SU, ATS 7-4)

Date: 4:00 EST Saturday, December 30th

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: UGA -14/FSU +14

Money Line: GA -708/Florida St. +482

Over/Under: 45.5

The Georgia Bulldogs and Florida State Seminoles matchup in a non-conference showdown at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 45.5, while Georgia is favored by -14.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Georgia and Florida State last season. But looking back across their previous three head-to-head games, Georgia is 3-0. Georgia also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 63 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Georgia Bulldogs Recent Form:

Despite dropping their most recent game by a score of 27-24 to Alabama, the Georgia Bulldogs still have an above .500 record of 12-1 as they take on Florida State.

The over/under line for the matchup was 54, resulting in a hit for the under. Against the spread, Georgia was tagged with the L, as they were favored by 5.5.

Although Carson Beck did toss a touchdown against Alabama, he did find the endzone with his legs. Overall, he threw for 243 while completing 72.4% of his passes.

Georgia’s leading rusher against Alabama was Kendall Milton, who along with rushing for 42 yards, he found the endzone two times in his 13 attempts. Leading Georgia in receiving against Alabama was Brock Bowers. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 53 yards on five receptions.

On defense, Georgia finished their game against Alabama, by giving up a total of 308 yards. Alabama threw the ball 23 times for 192 vs. Georgia. While on the ground, the Bulldogs gave up 116 rushing yards. This season, the Bulldogs’ defense has yielded an average of 117.8 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 177th. Opponents have an average of 177.7 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 72.1 when facing Georgia. They are currently 97th in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Away Injury Report

Florida State Seminoles Recent Form:

Prepping for this week’s matchup against Georgia, the Florida State Seminoles remain undefeated at 13-0. Their latest encounter saw them beat Louisville with a 16-6 score.

The over/under line going into the game was 46.5 points, which the teams fell short of. Florida State picked up an ATS win as they were favored by 1.

Against Louisville, Brock Glenn threw for 55 yards against Louisville, but did throw a touchdown pass. Overall, his passer rating was 46.33 on a completion percentage of 38.1%.

Lawrance Toafili carried the rushing load for Florida State against Louisville, accumulating 118 yards on 10 attempts and finding the endzone one time. For the game, Johnny Wilson hauled in two receptions for a total of 21 yards, which led the team.

Against Louisville, the Seminoles’ defense was excellent against Louisville, giving up just 6 points on 188 yards allowed. Louisville’s passing game finished with 111 yards. Up-front, Florida State gave up 2.3 yards per attempt. Florida State’s defense sits at 54th for points allowed, allowing 15.9 points per game. So far, teams have been averaging 170.4 passing yards per game against them (23rd nationally). On the ground, they’re yielding 135.5 rushing yards, ranking them 57th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• On the road, Georgia has gone 2-3 vs. the spread.
• Florida State’s ATS record at home (last three) is 2-1.
• In the five most recent times they were the underdog, Florida State has put together an ATS record of 4-1.
• Georgia are 1-2 in their last three games as favorites.

Free Pick

Both teams come into this matchup feeling as if they should be competing for a National Championship after being left out of the CFB Playoff. Leading up to kick off, it will be important to see which players will opt to sit out and prepare for the NFL. Even though Florida State has been good on defense, Georgia is just as good if not better. Look for Georgia’s physicality to cause problems all game long for the Seminoles, and I like Georgia to cover at -14.