Oregon State Beavers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 12, 2015, 12:00 pm EST
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
TV: ABC
by Badger, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ORST +16.5/MICH -16.5
Over/Under Total: 48
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Two new coaching staffs and two schools looking to reclaim former glory on the field will clash in week two college football action when Oregon State travels to the Big House of Michigan Stadium to play the Michigan Wolverines early on Saturday.
The Beavers kicked off the Gary Anderson era at Oregon State with a ho-hum, 26-7, victory over Weber State last weekend. The Beavers did hold Weber State to just 178 yards of total offense in the game, but holding a 13-7 lead going into the fourth quarter gave fans plenty of reasons to wonder just how good the young Beavers will be once they start facing legit competition like this weekend in the Big House.
Michigan went out and finally got the Michigan Man they wanted all along by plucking former Wolverine QB Jim Harbaugh from the NFL, but Harbaugh could not delivery in his first game at the helm of the Maize and Blue as the Wolverines fell to Utah on the road in Thursday nights opener, 24-17. Of course, Harbaugh wasnt the one throwing to the other colored jerseys all night, that would be graduated senior Jake Rudock, whos third interception of the night was a pick-six that put the nail in the coffin for the Wolverines and reminded everyone why Iowa didnt put up a fuss when Rudock walked away from the program and join Michigan instead.
To nobodys surprise, Michigan opened up as large 14-point favorites at home when sportsbooks started putting their point spreads for the week up on the board. Its a little surprising that the number has shot up to Michigan minus -16.5 by midweek, even though most of the public money thus far has been coming in on Oregon State. The over/under total has opened at 45.5 at the fews sportsbooks that are listing totals for Saturdays CFB card already.
Most of this game is going to revolve around the play of the quarterbacks. In the case of Oregon States Seth Collins, it will be his first colligate start on the road in what stands to be a tall task. For Michigans Rudock, it will hinge upon how long of a lease the senior transfer is allowed and whether or not he hangs himself and the Wolverines with it in the end.
The Wolverines defense will look to make it hard on the young Collins, who threw for two scores late in the opener to give Beavers fans a glimmer of hope this week. But the Wolverines defense looked average against the Utes, giving up over 200 yards passing and over 100 rushing in the loss, so a fast start by the Beavers could help keep them in it until the final quarter.
These two schools met on the same field back in 1986, in what turned into a 31-12 victory for the Wolverines in their only other previous meeting. As 37.5 point underdogs the Beavers did cover the spread, something that appears to be a trend for Michigan early in the season. The Wolverines are also 0-9 ATS in their last nine versus PAC-12 schools; and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games played in September.
The under would appear to be a solid betting trend play in this game too. The under is 4-1 in Oregon States last five non-conference games and its also 4-1 in Michigans non-conference games and 6-1 in Michigan games played in September.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Anyone who watched Rudock play in the Utah game has serious questions about the quarterback position at Michigan. Now, I certainly dont think Rudock will be terrible again, but he does have a history. And his history isnt stellar by any means. Im going to wait and see if the point spread for this game tops out soon, because it keeps climbing. But when it does stop, I think Im going to take a wager on Oregon State to cover 16.5 or 17 points in the end.
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