Oregon State Beavers (1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 25, 2017 at 7PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: ESPN 2
By Scott, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ORST +26/ORE -26
Over/Under Total: 61.5
The Oregon State Beavers make the in-state trip to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks in Pac-12 action on Saturday in the annual matchup known as the Civil War. Last season, Oregon State won in Corvallis, 34-24, breaking a string of eight straight wins by the Ducks. This season, that might be harder to pull off, as the Beavers sunk to 1-10 on the season on Saturday with a 40-24 home loss to Arizona State. Its been a long season for the Beavers and they now visit a Ducks team that is coming off a nice win. On Saturday, Oregon was able to pin a 48-28 win on the Arizona Wildcats at home. They look to add a win this week to boost their bowl profile and end the season on a good note with 7 regular season wins.
Several weeks ago, the Beavers looked to be getting their act together a little bit. Head coach Gary Andersen and the team parted ways, with interim head coach Cory Hall looking to breathe some life into the team. They didnt get to the winners circle, but with narrow losses to Colorado and Stanford, they covered the spread and were looking half-decent. In the last three games, however, they have absorbed conclusive losses at the hands of Cal, Arizona, and Arizona State on Saturday, appearing as if theyve regressed. Here they are in the last game of the season, with a 3-point win over FCS opponent Portland State on September 2 the only positive thing they have to show for it. With close losses to Colorado and especially Stanford, they have illustrated they can hang in there when the stars are aligned right, but for the most part, theyve played the role of dutiful conference doormat.
The Oregon State offense is not good, as its hard to identify an area of strength on this side of the ball. In their last five games, they have averaged over 24 points a game, which is actually an upswing from how they were performing, though hardly good enough to get wins in this conferenceespecially with the state of their defense. Darrell Garretson has not been able to make much of a difference at quarterback. He was 26-for-37 with 269 yards against ASU, but had no TD throws and two picks. They have a good back in Ryan Nall and some reliable aerial targets with Noah Togiah and Jordan Villamin. Their line, however, is not up to conference standards and their overall low level of firepower has kept them from being truly competitive this season.
On the season, the Oregon State defense has allowed an average of over 40 points a game. That puts them near the top of the list of the nations most-inept defenses. Granted, a lot of injuries have contributed, but even at full-strength, they were very dicey. They sometimes get decent playmaking from safeties David Morris and Jalen Moore, along with LB Manase Hungalu, but generally they have not been able to cut the mustard this season. They dont make a lot of big plays, get turnovers, or rush the passer. Just about every conference opponent has thrived against this bunch.
The Oregon offense rebounded from a bad loss the previous week to Washington when they scored a mere three points with a nice 48-point output against Arizona. Granted, the Wildcats defense has their issues, but the erratic Oregon offense was in good form on Saturday. Theyve been an up-and-down group this season. Theyve been all over the spectrum impressive in some weeks and flat in others. QB Justin Herbert made his return after missing extended time on Saturday, throwing for 235 yards, with a TD and a pick. He also ran in a touchdown. His presence gives the whole offense a boost. On Saturday, the run-game was dominant for the Ducks, putting up an impressive 353 yards and five touchdowns. Four of them were scored by top back Royce Freeman, who ran for 135 yards. Tony Brooks-James ran for 124 yards. While most of the good things they have done on offense this season has occurred on the ground, receivers Charles Nelson, Jacob Breeland, and Johnny Johnson, III. are viable aerial weapons who all had nice plays on Saturday.
The Oregon defense has also been erratic this season and not very good overall, yielding an average of 30 points a game. The secondary has been exploited for much of the season. Theyve been a lot better against the run and showed that against Arizona. In-conference, they have held Utah to 20 points, Cal to 24, but have been leaky in most other spots, ranging between not-that-good to downright-exploitable. Against Oregon State, they are in their wheelhouse, but they have faltered against the better offenses they have faced this season. They get a good pass-rush with Jalen Jelks and Henry Mondeaux up-front, with LB Troy Dye chipping in. Cornerback Ugo Amadi picked off his fourth pass of the season on Saturday. They can make plays and look to use that this week against an under-powered Beavers offense.
Oregon is hardly bankable. In an against-the-spread sense, their cover over Arizona on Saturday was only their second one since September. Still, they have faced a lot of tough teams this season and Oregon State is a step down from every team they have faced since an opening-week win over Southern Utah. Getting Herbert back and having their offense put up 48 points, while the defense made a lot of plays is a good way for them to be entering this matchup. Oregon State could have some extra pep looking to end the season on a positive note against a rival, along with an interim coach looking to make a statement. I see the Beavers covering the big number this week.
Scott’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Im betting on the Oregon State Beavers plus 26 points. If you went to the store and on the shelf was the exact same product, one for $110 and one for $105 which would you buy? The cheaper one of course! So why would you pay -110 odds on your bets instead of -105? Start betting at discounted odds today at 5Dimes!
