RBD’s Wrong Favorite model is 14-5 (73%) combined. This week it says take Cincinnati and UMass as road dogs.
Cincinnati at West Virginia
UMass at Buffalo
College Football Predictions
Last week I took a new Bowl system that I started in the ’25/26 season and applied it to the slate of regular season games.
During Bowl season, 16 games qualified.
I noted that two of them had conflicts with another system I had so I eliminated them.
The remaining 14 games went 10-4, 71%
Last week, five games qualified.
The record was 4-1.
I may be on to something here.
This week only two games qualify for this new model (if it keeps producing I’m going to have to come up with a stupid name for it.)
It says West Virginia and Buffalo are the Wrong Favorites so take Cincinnati and UMass.
I’ll look at some other stats but I’m not going to let any of them talk me off my two plays.
So far this model is a combined 14-5.
That’s 73% and until it starts to (IF it starts to) level out I’m going to keep riding it.
The Cincinnati game is a 12:00 p.m. EST kickoff and UMass starts at 1:00 p.m., so I don’t have the advantage of playing an early game and waiting to see the results before deciding on the late game.
West Virginia opened at -1′ and right now I can get Cincinnati at anywhere from +1′ to +2.
SU I have Cincinnati at 4-1 and WV at 3-3.
I like those numbers.
Cincy’s only loss came on the Rd though, so I’m a little concerned there.
It was a 34-7 loss to Arizona.
The Mountaineers also faced Arizona, just last week, and they lost 52-31.
That was the third straight loss for West Virginia so they’re on a bit of a down streak.
Cincy comes in off of one loss.
I’m okay with betting the Bearcats but it’s never fun betting on UMass.
The Minute Men failed to win a game last season, going 0-12.
They weren’t much better ATS at 3-9.
Buffalo beat them 28-21, but it was one of the three games they managed to win ATS.
Oddly enough, it seemed as if UMass turned it around this season. I did a double take two weeks ago when I noticed that they were sitting in first place in the MAC at 4-0!
But since then the natural order of things has been restored. They’ve lost their last two games and are now 4-2.
Like I said above, it’s never fun betting on UMass and this is a particularly bad week to do so. It looks like they’ll be missing their starting quarterback AND their second stringer.
Ane the Minute Men are missing a few top wide receivers, too.
That’s why they opened at +3′ and the line shot up to +6′. It’s not a situation I envy putting my money on but last week I had three games that qualified on Saturday and I only played one.
And it was the only one of the three that didn’t win.
I’m not making that mistake again this week, I’m playing both games.
Normally, with a three-point line move, I’d buy the Buffalo game now before a buy back comes from players looking for a middle, but I doubt anyone’s going to buy UMass with a third string quarterback starting the game and there’s a good chance I could get that hook added and get a full seven points.
My plays:
Cin
UMass
(Wait to buy both as the lines are moving in my favor. Check the forum for updates.)
Record: 11-11
Update: Regarding a record for my article on Wyoming from earlier today. I wrote:
My new model MT has an overall record of 4-11 Ov/Un.
Overs are just 0-1 but Unders give me a very usable Fade at 3-11.
Correction – the overall record is 3-12.
