Syracuse at North Carolina & Virginia Tech at Clemson
College Football Predictions Side and Total
We just passed the midway point in the season.
I have seven weeks worth of data accumulated and some pretty stand-out plays to use going into Week 8.
WF1 has a record of 5-2 on home teams, 71%.
Only seven plays, but a solid W percentage.
But my best plays are two new ones I came up with this season.
MT totals are a combined 5-13, Ov 1-0, Un 4-12.
That’s a 75% Fade on Unders with a 16-game sample.
And my other new spot, untitled going into today, is another model I came up with for looking at Wrong Favorites.
After the near miss loss with Cincinnati last week I have seven games charted, with a record of 2-5, giving me a 71% Fade.
(If it wins this week I’ll come up with a stupid name for it next week.)
It’s only Tuesday but I already bought two games due to anticipated line moves.
Syracuse at North Carolina
My MT model says this game stays Under.
With a record of 4-12 I’m Fading and taking the Over.
The game opened at 44′ and while you can still get it at 46 the common number at most houses is 46′ so that’s what I’ll use here.
A quick check of my database shows that neither of these teams has been in the spot previously this season, so let’s check some standard stats.
Syracuse trends to an Over team at 4-2 Ov/Un.
NC trends Under, at 2-4.
On the Rd, the Orange are 2-1 Ov/Un.
At Hm the Tar Heels are 1-1.
Not bad numbers for someone looking at an Over this week. Let’s check some averages.
Syracuse’s offense averages 25 PPG but they’ve been showing improvement over the last three games, averaging 31.
North Carolina averages only 21 PPG on offense but this week they get a Syracuse defense that’s ranked 100 out of 138 teams, surrendering an average of 30 points per game and 35 in recent play (their last three games.)
Based on the matchup I see North Carolina scoring at least 25 this week at Hm.
Bill Belichick’s defense is only surrendering 22.5 per game. If they maintain that average, and Syracuse maintains their average PPG on offense, the game should easily come in Over 47.
Clemson at Virginia Tech
This play comes from the new Bowl system that was successful last season. I just started charting it for regular season play and so far, so good at a 71% Fade.
I apply an offbeat stat to every game in the chart.
If the stat is in the negative it gets chartered in red ink, positive gets green ink.
When I have a team that has a negative number AND they’re the Fav against a team that has a positive number, it qualifies as a Fade against the team with the negative number.
Those teams are 2-5, thus far and Clemson qualifies this week.
Virginia Tech comes in with a record of 5-2, SU, 4-3 ATS.
Clemson is 4-2 SU and just 2-4 ATS.
The Hokies are 2-1 SU on the Rd, beating Maryland and BC (not very impressive) and losing to Cal, a team with a losing record.
At Hm, the Tigers are 3-1, but you can toss last week’s win against Charleston Southern, an FCS team with a losing record.
Clemson’s lone home loss came against undefeated Miami, who beat them by 28 points.
Ugly/Scary stat of the game:
Virginia Tech has lost seven straight to Clemson.
But, looking for a bright side to offset that seven straight stat, the Hokies new HC James Franklin has NEVER lost to Clemson’s Deebo Sweeney.
(That fact is diminished when you consider Franklin’s never faced Sweeney, but at least he wasn’t part of any of those seven straight losses to the Tigers!)
Virginia Tech’s weakness is defending the pass but that’s offset this week because Clemson’s weakness is passing the ball.
It’ll be close, and it’ll likely come down to who protects the ball and doesn’t turn it over.
So far, both teams are in the negative on T/O margin, the Hokies at -5, the Tigers at -3.
In a tight game like this I value taking the points rather than laying them, especially when I’m getting a full FG.
Tech is not going to get any better than +3, and the Syracuse game is going to climb so I bought both of them this morning (Tuesday.)
My plays:
V Tech +3
Syracuse/NC Over 46′
Recap: 2-2
Record: 13-13
Side note:
In my weekly rant and review I said,
“There’s no way the WNBA lets the Valkyries KO their darling Angel Reese, the league office’s ordained anti Caitlin. Watch for a lopsided free throw tally in the upcoming games.”
Last night the game was close at halftime.
With Reese and the Dream looking at a possible 0-2 deficit in the series, it was time for the league to work their black magic.
Q3 score was 21-9 for the Dream.
Q3 foul count?
Seven against Golden State, just two against Atlanta.
Final free throw count, full game?
THIRTY FIVE for the Atlanta Angels.
Just 19 for Golden State.
Same BS as in the deciding game three, Indiana vs Vegas.
Rotten, crooked, b*itches, the lot of them.
