North Texas at UNLV
This morning I took a deep dive into stats on the games that qualified as -37 Favs, as described in my July 25, 2026 article on taking Oklahoma.
But this time instead of looking at the Favs I took a look at the Dogs.
While wearing my handicapping Thinking Cap this morning I was wondering how these teams perform in their next game.
Is there an edge I could exploit?
How do you think a team feels after they get their butts kicked?
How do they perform in their next game?
Eliminating FCS opponents and going with FBS only here’s what I have:
SU 0-7
ATS 1-6
Ov/Un 4-3.
So to answer my earlier question, is there an edge I can exploit, the answer is – Hell yeah!
This year, there were four Big Favs that qualified, giving us four teams that were Dogs in those games that we can look at Fading this week, UTEP, North Texas, Ball State, and San Jose State.
Eliminate Ball State, they have an FCS opponent this week.
Same for UTEP, they face an FCS opponent this week.
Eliminate San Jose State because they’ve already played their follow-up game.
They won SU and ATS and the game stayed Under, making the updated stats for this spot:
1-7 SU
2-6 ATS
4-4 Ov/Un
That leaves us with only one spot, North Texas.
At 2-6 ATS I have a 66% edge to exploit.
Not a lot of data to go on with just eight games charted, but on the other hand it is Over a four-year period.
It would be easier to pull the trigger on Fading North Texas in their “follow-up to getting their ass kicked spot” if I had another stat in my favor.
And what do you know – I do.
Two stats in fact.
North Texas qualifies for my WF1 model, which says the books made the wrong team the Fav.
WF1 is 2-4 this season, a 67% Fade.
(Those were Rd spots though, this will be the first Hm team that qualifies.)
And I also have this – their opponent is UNLV.
The 2-4 record is for all teams.
When I look at team specific stats I see that UNLV is 1-0 in this spot.
Last week, WF1 said Hawaii should be the Hm Fav.
The books had UNLV as the Rd Fav, -3.
The Rebels won 21-6, easily covering the spread and banking me a unit.
I like to stick with what works, and the Rebels worked just fine for me last week. It doesn’t count for much because it was three years ago, but I’ll put this in anyway – last time these two teams met UNLV came away with a win, 58-27.
The 2025 North Texas team was the number one scoring offense in the country.
But the 2026 version is vastly different.
Head coach Eric Morris is gone, taking the job at Oklahoma State.
QB Drew Mestemaker is gone, transferred to Oklahoma State to join us head coach.
The team has over 70 new players, 50 from the transfer portal.
New head coach, new system, new players.
It will take time to gel.
They lost 52-16 last week.
When to Buy Recommendation
The line opened at UNLV -6′ and money has been pouring in on the Mean Green.
It’s Thursday morning and the board is split between UNLV -3 and -3′, with -3 easily obtainable at many shops.
As always, when the line is moving in your favor don’t be in a rush to buy it. But keep a close eye on it. Bettors who took the +6′ will no doubt be grabbing the -3 looking for a middle so the line will likely climb back up.
If it starts to move higher, grab the -3.
My play:
UNLV (wait to buy)
Recap: 4-1
Record: 5-1
Review:
A bad buy on my part cost me a perfect 6-0 start to the season. I took an early Buy on Texas A&M because the number was rising.
I bought it at 52′, it landed on 50.
Crazy line fluctuations on Game Day saw the total go as high as 54′ and as low as 47.
A better buy could have gotten me a W.
(Also, it wouldn’t have hurt if Missouri State could have managed to score a single point, bastards.)
