Oklahoma at Michigan Prediction
Warning – technical, wonky handicapping stuff below.
If you’re not a handicapper and just want to see picks go to the end of the article.
There’s a problem with my NP Under system.
The year by year six year record is posted in previous articles but now let’s look at it for the number of total picks, year by year.
2020: 32
2021: 55
2022: 66
2023: 38
2024: 36
2025: 16
See the problem?
The number of games that qualify has been dropping for three straight years, including a 56% drop off from 2024 to 2025.
And now, Week 1 and 2 of 2026, zero games qualified (I actually had five early in Week One but due to line changes all five came off the board.)
I noticed something interesting while going over my database. In 2020 and 2021 I had a different set of parameters to qualify.
One of the qualifiers is based on a point spread differential between my number and the opening number at the books. The first two seasons I used five points (the book’s number had to be five points higher than my number for it to qualify as an Under) but in 2022 the qualifier became at least a full touchdown differential, seven points or more.
And there’s nothing in my notes that tells me why I did it.
But even dropping it to 5 points I still get no games to qualify this week. So I’m going to start doing something different – charting FCS games, too.
I had one last week, shared it in the Forum, and it won.
I tried this once before. I saw in my database that in 2021 I kept a separate section for FCS games only.
The record for FCS totals was 64-57, no edge, break-even with juice factored in.
But when I broke it down into the subcategory of Ov/Un I did see an edge worth betting on.
Guess which one, Ov or Un.
Yup, the Un.
Ov 23-24, Un 41-33.
That’s a 58% edge for playing Unders.
I looked at my charts for 2022 and there’s no data on FCS games. I dropped it, probably for two reasons.
First, it’s just too much work when added to the 2-3 hours I already spend each morning on handicapping.
Second, I didn’t need it – I was killing it on the FBS NP Unders.
This week, with no FBS or FCS games qualifying for the NP spots I’ll turn to one of my other models for picking totals.
T1 Unders have a perfect record of 4-0 this year thus far this season.
I have four spots to choose from this week, Ok/Mich, Ore/Ok St, Miss St/Min and UNLV/N Tex.
I’ll start my morning with the Cowboys and the Wolverines.
I also bought and am recommending one other play.
I took Ohio State to win the Big Ten at very attractive Dog odds of +170. It’s basically a three horse race with the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Ducks. I watched all three last week and to my eye the Buckeyes seen the most complete team on both sides of the ball. I think Indiana is in for a severe regression this year, and the Ducks, well, the Ducks always fall short.
Betting Ohio State to win the Big Ten is like having a bet on them this week against Texas because if they can win this tough Rd game in Austin the only other difficult spot I see is Oregon, and they get the Ducks at home in Columbus (again, I’m dismissing Indiana.)
My plays:
Ok/Mich Un 43′
Ohio St to win the Big Ten, +170
Recap: 4-1
Record: 5-1
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for my Saturday morning update. I’m very likely going to add at least one more play, something different, a Karma spot.
EVERYBODY knows Michigan lost last week.
The way it ended was disgusting to me, and I didn’t even have any money on it!
If the line was Ok -3 I’d buy the Cowboys right now but the opening -5′ is down to -4, and if it gets to -3′ I’m buying the hook off and taking Oklahoma.
Even if it doesn’t drop down I may lay the four or buy a full point, something I never do.
Because if there’s any justice in the world . . .
