Sacramento State at Central Michigan
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Central Michigan is an 18.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5 at most books. My play is Sacramento State +18.5.
“We showed that we have the ability to play with anyone in the league.” That’s Alonzo Carter after his Hornets took 7-2 Toledo down to the final minute last Wednesday, and for the first time in a rough debut MAC season, it didn’t sound like coach-speak. The market opened Central Michigan at -15.5 and has pushed it three full points higher since. I think it went the wrong way.
A defense that changed its whole personality
Sacramento State’s season was heading straight for the basement until a quiet staff shuffle. According to The State Hornet, linebackers coach Kenwick Thompson took over the defensive play-calling, flipped the Hornets into a 3-4 look with more zone and more blitzes, and the results showed up immediately. After giving up 39.2 points a game over a six-game stretch, Sac State held Kent State to 10 points and Toledo to 20. The Rockets managed just 60 passing yards, the fewest the Hornets have ever allowed to an FBS opponent. Under Thompson, this defense has forced nine turnovers, after forcing just two under the old setup.
That matters against this particular opponent, because Central Michigan cannot throw the football. The Chippewas average 129 passing yards a game, 134th in the country per ESPN, and they score just 19.8 points a game, 123rd. When a team that leans this hard on the ground lays 18.5, it needs everything to go right. Running the ball keeps the clock moving, and a running clock is a big underdog’s best friend.
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Central Michigan’s best night of the year is baked into the price
The Chippewas looked terrific last week, I’ll admit. They dismantled Eastern Michigan 35-7 at Ford Field, snapping a three-game losing streak, with Nick Woodford running for 123 yards and three scores and Jadyn Glasser going 14-of-19 in just his second start for the injured Angel Flores. CMU ran it 53 times for 235 yards, and the offensive line is the real deal, 24th nationally in adjusted line yards per carry according to College Football Charts.
But one rout of a rival doesn’t make you a three-touchdown favorite. Bill Connelly’s SP+ makes Central Michigan a 14.9-point favorite here, and the PRIME ratings come in at 15.6. Both land on the Sac State side of 18.5, and both sit close to the opening number before the market got carried away. Before the Eastern Michigan win, this same team lost three straight by a combined 25 points to Ohio, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio). That’s not a team built to bury people.
What keeps me up at night
Plenty can go sideways here. Quarterback Jackson Sharman left the Toledo game with an upper-body injury, and while he is listed as the starter, that uncertainty may help explain the line move. Backup Brian Salazar Jr. looked sharp in relief, going 12-of-18 and leading a late touchdown drive, but it’s a lot to ask on the road. The Hornets’ ground game is also broken, with just eight rushing yards against Toledo, and Central Michigan’s line could bully a Sac State front that ranks 131st in adjusted line yards allowed. Then there’s the trip: nearly 2,000 miles and three time zones for a Wednesday night kickoff in Mount Pleasant. If Sac State goes three-and-out all night, the Chippewas will get enough short fields to cover.
Still, a run-first favorite against a defense that has finally found its identity is a spot where I want the points.
Projected score: Central Michigan 27, Sacramento State 13
The Pick: Sacramento State +18.5
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