Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread Odds & Pick
Tennessee Volunteers (9-2 SU, ATS 5-3-0) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-6 SU, ATS 5-5-0)
Date: Saturday, November 26th
Location: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Point Spread: Volunteers -15/Commodores +15 (BAS Sportsbook allows you to bet games at -105 instead of -110! Imagine how much money you would be saving!!!)
Money Line: Volunteers -747/Commodores +502
The Volunteers come into the game with an overall record of 9-2. This strong play includes going 5-2 in SEC action. This season, the Volunteers have been favored in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-3-0. Their average over-under betting line is 46.14 leading to an over-under record of 4-4-0.
In their last game, Tennessee entered as the 22.5-point underdogs vs South Carolina. The Volunteers ended up losing the game by a score of 63-38. In the win, Tennessee completed 58.0% of their 50 passes, 4 of which resulted in touchdowns. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 5.4 yards per carry for a total of 152 yards.
Heading into the matchup, Hendon Hooker has an overall passer rating of 124.61 on a total of 3135 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. Wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 1181 receiving yards. The Volunteers have turned to running back Jaylen Wright a total of 130 times for a total of 626 rushing yards.
The Commodores head into this week’s game with an overall record of 5-6. However, they are 2-5 in SEC action. This season, the Commodores have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 49.73 leading to an over-under record of 6-4-0.
In their previous game, the Commodores picked up a 31-24 road win over Florida. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 14.0-point underdogs. In the game, Vanderbilt finished with three touchdowns through the air while throwing for 108 yards. In the rushing game, the Commodores did not find the endzone while finishing with a total of 175 yards on the ground.
So far, quarterback AJ Swann has a passer rating of 91.29 while completing 104 of his 181 attempts. But, leading up to the game, he is listed as questionable on the injury report (Lower Body). So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Will Sheppard, who has caught 54 passes for a total of 728 yards. In the run game, Ray Davis has accumulated 889 yards on 193 attempts to lead the team.
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Tennessee has gone 8-2-0 over their last ten contests, including posting an ATS record 7-3-0. On average, the team scored 45.3 points while allowing 27.2, leading to a positive scoring differential.
Across their five previous road games, Tennessee has an ATS mark of 2-3-0. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3-0 while averaging 34.0 points per game.
In their last ten contests, the Commodores have a straight-up record of 4-6-0 while covering the spread at a rate of 40.0%. Their last ten over-under record comes in at 5-5-0. Vanderbilt has a negative scoring differential in these games, averaging 23.2 points per game and allowing 36.6.
In their last five games at home, the Commodores have a straight-up record of 2-3-0 while going 1-4-0 vs. the spread. The team’s offense averaged 30.6 points per game in these contests.
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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
So far, the Volunteers are averaging 46.55 points per game on offense, which is the top mark in college football. This could be another big game for the team, as the Vanderbilt defense allows an average of 34.18 points per game.
This week, Tennessee may look to throw the ball more than they have, as they are below the NCAA average in pass attempts per game but rank well in yards per completion. In addition, they should have plenty of time to work the ball down the field, with Vanderbilt ranking just 148th in sacks per contest.
This season, Tennessee averages 41.27 rush attempts per game, good for 35th in the country. In terms of production, they are 21st in yards per game at 191.55. This week, the Volunteers will face a Vanderbilt defense ranked 89th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 211.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Commodores will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 78th in the NCAA in points scored and are matched up against a Tennessee defense that is allowing an average of 25.64 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.
Although the Commodores have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs. a Tennessee defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 66.19%.
So far, the Vanderbilt offense is averaging just 161.09 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 36.18 rush attempts per game (73rd). The Commodores will face a Tennessee defense that is 26th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they have averaged 72.25 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
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