Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs: Betting Analysis & Pick
Texas Longhorns (8-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at TCU Horned Frogs (4-5, 3-6), 11/11/23
When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 11
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium
CFB Betting Odds
Line: Texas -9.5
Moneyline: Texas -385 / TCU +300
Texas can take a step closer to securing a spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game by taking on TCU this Saturday night in Fort Worth. The Longhorns are tied for first place in the Big 12 with three games to go, while the Horned Frogs are struggling to replicate their success from the previous season.
NCAAF Betting Odds
The Week 11 college football betting market opened with Texas as a 10-point road favorite at TCU, with an over/under of around 53. Early betting action then shaved that spread to 9.5.
Texas-TCU Betting Preview
The Longhorns ride a three-game winning streak into Saturday night after outlasting Kansas State in overtime last Saturday, 33-30. Texas scored the first 17 points of the game, later led 27-7, then allowed Kansas State to tie the score at 30-30 with a field goal as time expired in regulation. The Longhorns secured the win with a field goal in the first part of overtime, followed by a defensive stop.
Texas outgained Kansas State 478-370 and outrushed them 230-40. However, they also turned the ball over three times, playing a significant role in Kansas State’s comeback.
A month ago the Longhorns took their first loss of this season, 34-30 against Oklahoma. They then won at Houston somewhat underwhelmingly 31-24, then bounced BYU 35-6.
At 5-1 in conference play Texas is tied for first place in the Big 12 with Oklahoma State, one game ahead of five teams at 4-2, with three games to go.
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Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are just 1-4 both SU and ATS their last five times out after falling at Texas Tech last Thursday 35-28. TCU trailed that game 20-7 at the half, rallied to lead 21-20 late in the third quarter but gave up the next 14 points and couldn’t fully recover.
TCU started 3-1 this season and 1-0 in Big 12 play. But the Frogs then lost back-to-back to West Virginia and Iowa State, beat BYU, then lost badly at Kansas State.
At 2-4 in conference play TCU is basically dead in the Big 12 race and at 4-5 overall they need two wins over their last three games just to become bowl-eligible.
On the injury front both these teams are operating with their back-up quarterbacks, following injuries to both starters.
Texas-TCU Recent History
The Horned Frogs own the edge in the recent rivalry with the Longhorns, winning seven of the last nine meetings SU, going 7-2 ATS along the way. Last year, on its way to the national championship game, TCU beat Texas in Austin 17-10.
College Football Betting Trends
TCU is 5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS over its last 12 games.
The unders are 6-3 in Longhorns games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.
The unders are 6-3 in Frogs games, which are averaging 54 points.
The unders are 6-2 over the last eight meetings between these teams.
Free College Football Betting Pick
Texas is the better team here, playing the better ball recently, with the better running game and the better defense. Also, playing on the road means the spread is a little friendlier toward the Longhorns. We’ll take Texas for Saturday night.