Banking on a Blowout: Texas vs. Kansas Pick

by | Nov 17, 2020 | cfb

Texas Longhorns (5-2 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (0-7, 0-7), 11/21/20

Time: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 21

Where: Kansas Memorial Stadium


Point spread: Tex -29/Kan +29 (BAS - You only have to lay -105 on games there! -110 = DUMB way to bet. -105 = SMART!)

Over/Under: 61.5

The Texas Longhorns are favored by four touchdowns for their Big 12 bout with the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon in Lawrence, so victory seems likely. Texas remains in the hunt for a spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game, and it’s got a big game next week against first-place Iowa State. Will the ‘Horns go for the cover Saturday? Or do they ease through this week, with their minds on next week? And how are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened Texas at -29, with an over/under of 61.5. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

Longhorns vs. Jayhawks Betting Preview

Texas rides a three-game winning streak into Saturday after beating West Virginia two weeks ago, 17-13. The Longhorns then had last week off.

Texas drove the opening possession of the game against the Mountaineers 75 yards to a touchdown and led 10-7 at the half. The Longhorns then allowed the Mountaineers to tie the game early in the third quarter but immediately drove 65 yards to a touchdown to re-take the lead. Near the end, the ‘Horns made a defensive stop on a fourth down at their own 8-yard line, then ran the last 4:44 off the clock to preserve the victory.

However, Texas came up short of covering the spread as a favorite of 6.5 points.

The Longhorns out-gained West Virginia 363-360 and out-rushed the Mountaineers 179-43. So Texas has now out-gained and out-rushed four of its seven opponents this season.

Three weeks ago, the Longhorns outlasted Oklahoma State 41-34 in overtime, winning that game outright as underdogs of 3.5 points. Four weeks ago, Texas beat Baylor 27-16 but pissed away the cover as an 11-point favorite after leading 27-3 through three quarters.

At 4-2 in Big 12 play, the Longhorns trail Oklahoma State by a half-game in the battle for the second spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game. And the ‘Horns own the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Cowboys.

More Picks: Tennessee at Auburn Spread Play >>>

Kansas, meanwhile, is struggling mightily in its second season under Coach Miles, at 0-7 now, after losing to Oklahoma two weeks ago 62-9. The Jayhawks then also had last week off.

Kansas turned the ball over on two of its first three possessions two weeks ago and trailed the Sooners 31-3 at the half. The Jayhawks later trailed 62-3 before scoring a meaningless touchdown on the final play of the game and whiffed ATS as 39-point underdogs.

Kansas got out-gained by Oklahoma 540-246 and out-rushed 200-95. So the Jayhawks have been out-gained by six of their seven opponents this season, four times by 290 yards or more, and out-rushed by all seven foes.

Three weeks ago, Kansas lost to Iowa State 52-22 and couldn’t cover at +28, and four weeks ago, it lost to Kansas State 55-14 and couldn’t cover at +19. In fact, the Jayhawks haven’t covered a spread yet this season.

At 0-7 overall, Kansas is just looking to make some progress on the rebuild going on under Coach Miles. But so far, it’s been a mess.
Longhorns-Jayhawks Recent History

Texas is 15-1 SU against Kansas since these teams became Big 12 rivals back in 1996. But the Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS over the last four meetings, keeping games close as underdogs. Last year in Austin, the Longhorns needed a field goal at the buzzer to win 50-48, but Kansas covered easily at +20.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Texas is 21-13 SU but only 14-19-1 ATS in Big 12 play under Coach Herman.
  • Texas is 26-14 SU, 19-20-1 ATS with Sam Ehlinger starting at quarterback.
  • Texas is 2-1 ATS its last three games giving 28 or more points.
  • Kansas is 1-14 SU, 4-11 ATS in Big 12 play under Coach Miles.
  • Kansas is 1-2 ATS its last three games getting 28 or more points.

Totals Report

Overs are 5-2 in Longhorns games this season, which are averaging 70 total points against an average over/under of 63.

Overs are 6-0-1 in Jayhawks games this season, which are averaging 63 points against an average O/U of 54.

Free College Football Pick

Texas is going to win this game, and playing on the road, even in front of a very small crowd, probably means the spread on this game is a bit more amenable toward the Longhorns. We’ll take Texas, minus the points. Bet the next few weeks of football for free by scoring a 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook! This is the BEST sportsbook bonus we’ve ever seen from a legit book!