Tennessee vs. Auburn Pick ATS 11/21/20

by | Nov 17, 2020 | cfb

Tennessee Volunteers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, November 21st 2020. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium Auburn, AL


Point Spread: TENN +10.5/AUB -10.5 (List of the Best Sportsbooks)

Over/Under Total: 51

Last week, several games across the SEC were postponed due to COVID-19 complications. Both the Tennessee Volunteers and Auburn Tigers were among the teams involved in games that were postponed until later in the season. Tennessee had a tough match-up with no. 5 Texas A&M that was put on hold, while Auburn’s match-up against a struggling Mississippi State team will be pushed back to the end of the year. Fortunately, it appears the COVID-19 prognosis for both teams returning to action on Saturday is trending in the right direction. If everything goes according to plan, the Auburn Tigers will host the Tennessee Volunteers for a primetime battle on ESPN at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Gus Malzahn’s 100th game as coach for Auburn

If both teams make it to the gridiron on Saturday, Gus Malzahn will be making his 100th appearance as Auburn’s Head Coach. Malzahn has repeatedly been brought up in “hot seat” discussions over the last few years. After making an appearance in the National Championship Game in his debut season on the plains, Malzahn has recorded just one ten-win season in the last six years. Even if you look at this 2020 campaign, it’s hard to identify if Auburn is failing or exceeding expectations. The Tigers suffered a somewhat expected loss to Georgia early in the year and were blindsided by an inexcusable upset to South Carolina two weeks later. Aside from those two games, Auburn has pulled out wins while sporting a 3-3 record ATS. Going into this Saturday’s meeting with Tennessee, I think the jury is still out as to whether we should consider Auburn among the SEC’s upper echelon. Regardless, the Tigers will be 10.5 point favorites in their home defense against the Vols.

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Rocky Top Troubles

In Auburn’s defense, the Tigers have played their best football over the last few outings to potentially signal some optimism for the upcoming games. On the other hand, Tennessee has dropped four straight games and has been largely uncompetitive in each of those losses. We are talking about a Volunteers team that got blown out 34-7 by Kentucky at home. A lot of people are trying to point to the reasons behind Tennessee’s struggles, and everyone has a different explanation. In general, I think Tennessee lacks talent. I tried to warn bettors that QB Jarrett Guarantano was a subpar passing threat in the buildup to that Georgia game. The Volunteers had lofty expectations placed on them this year thanks to the AP Rankings, but they never had the talent to support those expectations.

As it currently stands, Guarantano has just six passing touchdowns on the season with three interceptions. Running backs Eric Gray and Ty Chandler have been decent because Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt has basically been forced into a run-heavy attack. Still, the offense lacks playmakers and production. Since picking up wins against two bad teams in South Carolina and Missouri, Tennessee has averaged just 14 points per game over their last four contests. Pruitt seems like he does not have any answers, and there is a growing expectation that he could be let go if things don’t turn around soon. Unfortunately for the Vols, I don’t believe this is a great match-up to turn the tide. Tennessee’s defense is giving up 160 yards per game on the ground. While I am not a big fan of Auburn QB Bo Nix, the Tigers do spread the ball out very well. RB Tank Bigsby and WR Seth Williams are match-up nightmares for the Vols defense, and I expect Auburn to have success moving the football.

If Tennessee is going to compete in this game, the Vols must create scoring opportunities. The double-digit spread makes things difficult because we should expect the Tigers to have the advantage in this game. However, Auburn’s defense has not exactly been great. The Tigers have allowed a lot of yards, especially against the run where Tennessee likes to attack. I’m expecting Auburn to control this football game, but I will admit that I am concerned with the Tigers’ defense. Luckily, Auburn’s defense has played their best football in recent weeks, and I am betting on that trend to continue against a very predictable Vols offense.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Auburn -10.5. Bet this game and ALL your sports bets at -105 odds (instead of the spendy -110 your book is forcing you to risk!) TODAY at BAS Sportsbook! You’ll be so happy you made the switch!