Texas vs KState Odds, Analysis, Prediction ATS 11/5/22

by | Nov 2, 2022 | cfb

Texas Longhorns (5-3 SU, ATS 4-3) vs Kansas State Wildcats (6-2 SU, ATS 6-2)

Date: Saturday, November 5th

Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS

TV: FS1

Point Spread: Tex -3/KSU +3 (Bovada – Largest variety of prop bets on the web!)

Money Line: Horns -143/Kansas St. +118

Over/Under: 54.5

RECENT FORM

In Big 12 play, the Longhorns have a record of 3-2, while the team’s overall record is 5-3.
This season, the Longhorns have been favored in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-3. Their
average over-under betting line is 52.0 leading to an over-under record of 3-4.

In their last game, Texas entered as the 6.5-point underdogs vs Oklahoma State. The Longhorns
ended up losing the game by a score of 41-34. In the game, Texas finished with 2 touchdowns
through the air, while throwing for 319 yards. The team ended the game with 2 rushing touchdowns,
along with a total of 204 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers comes in the game having completed 82 of 142 passes for a passer
rating of 94.78. Overall, he has a total of 1139 passing yards. Xavier Worthy leads the team’s
receiving corps with 36 catches for a total of 510 yards. The Longhorns have turned to running
back Bijan Robinson a total of 162 times for a total of 920 rushing yards.

This season, the Wildcats hope to continue playing well against Big 12 teams, as they are 4-1.
Their overall record is 6-2. This season, the Wildcats have been favored in 6 games while posting
an ATS mark of 6-2. Their average over-under betting line is 52.38 leading to an over-under
record of 3-5.

This week, the Wildcats will look to pick up another win, as they are coming off a 48-0 win
over Oklahoma State. With the 48-point victory, Kansas State also covered the spread. In the
game, Kansas State finished with 4 touchdowns through the air while throwing for 296 yards. The
team ended the game with 2 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 199 yards on the ground.

The team’s leading quarterback is Adrian Martinez, who comes into the game with a passer
rating of 90.39 on a completion percentage of 62.1%. But, leading up to the game, he is listed as
questionable on the injury report (Lower Body). Wide receiver Malik Knowles has come up with the
most production for the team, with a total of 447 receiving yards. The top option in the run game
for the team is Deuce Vaughn, who has carried the ball 154 times for a total of 902 yards.

BETTING TRENDS

Over their last 10 games, the Longhorns have covered the spread at a rate of 60.0%. In these
games, they posted a straight-up mark of 6-4. The team’s average scoring differential was 11.9,
as they averaged 33.6 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 21.7. Their last
10 over-under record is 3-7-0.

Across the Longhorns’ last 5 road games, the team averaged 29.4 points per game while allowing
27.8. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4 while going 1-4 straight-up.

Against the spread, Kansas State has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. Over this same period,
their straight-up record is 7-3. On offense, the team averaged 30.7 points per game while
allowing 18.0. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 4-6-0.

Kansas State has played well in their previous 5 home games, going 4-1 straight up. In this
stretch, they averaged 33.8 points per game while allowing 11.4. The team also performed well vs
the spread at 4-1.

More Picks: Michigan at Rutgers Week 10 point spread & predictions >>>

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

So far, the Longhorns are averaging 36.38 points per game on offense, which is good for 22nd
most in college football and will be a matchup against a Texas defense ranked 17.25 points per
game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

Although the Longhorns have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Kansas State defense allowing teams
to complete passes at a rate of 64.34%.

This season, the run game has not been a big part of the Texas offense, as they are averaging
just 35.62 attempts per game. With their limited opportunites, they have an average of 182.88
yards per contest, good for 43rd in the NCAA. This week, the Longhorns will be facing a Kansas
State defense ranked 60th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 198.83
yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Wildcats will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 57th in the NCAA in points scored. However, this could be a tough matchup
for the team, as Texas is only allowing 21.12 points per game.

Although the Wildcats have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Texas defense allowing teams to
complete passes at a rate of 57.81%.

On the ground, the Kansas State offense is averaging 228.0 yards per game, good for 11th in
the country. This has come while ranking 26th in attempts at 40.38 per game. This week, the
Wildcats will be facing a Texas defense that is 40th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they
have averaged 236.33 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

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