Toldeo at CMU Expert Pick & Analysis

Date: 12:00 EST Friday, November 24th

Location: Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI

TV: ESNU

Point Spread: Tol -12/CMU +12

Money Line: Rockets -454/Central Mich. +340

Over/Under: 55.5

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The Toledo Rockets and Central Michigan Chippewas matchup in a Mid-American showdown at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, MI. The over/under for this matchup is currently 55.5, while Toledo is favored by -12.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Toledo will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 38-17 win over Central Michigan. In the win, Toledo ran for 261 yards and threw for 186. On 3rd down, the Rockets went 11/20. On the other side, Central Michigan completed 25 of their 46 passes for 252 yards and ran for 33 yards.

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Toledo’s 32-31 win over Bowling Green moved their record to 10-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with Central Michigan.

On the point spread, Toledo was favored by 10 going into the game, resulting in an ATS loss. The combined 63 points surpassed the pre-game betting line of 49.5 points.

In the win, Toledo quarterback DeQuan Finn threw two touchdown passes and added one rushing touchdown, completing 66.7% of his passes for a total of 279 yards. Peny Boone led the ground attack with 131 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts. Anthony Torres was Toledo’s most productive receiver, finishing with 71 yards on three receptions.

Toledo’s defense allowed 404 total yards against Bowling Green, including 309 passing yards and 95 rushing yards. The Rockets are 79th in points allowed, giving up an average of 20.7 points per game. They rank 35th in passing yards allowed (185.3 yards per game) and 75th against the run (146.5 yards per game).

Away Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Central Michigan Chippewas Recent Form:

After a 34-20 loss to Ohio, Central Michigan’s record stands at 5-6.

As 11-point underdogs, Central Michigan not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 54 points exceeded the betting line of 48.5 points.

In the loss, Central Michigan quarterback Jase Bauer had a QB rating of 84.82, completing 10 of 21 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Marion Lukes was the primary rusher, gaining 75 yards and scoring a touchdown on 15 carries. Chris Parker had one reception for a touchdown and 62 yards.

Defensively, Central Michigan allowed a total of 401 yards to Ohio, including 229 passing yards and 172 rushing yards. The Chippewas’ defense ranks 1st in quarterback hurries and has amassed 18 sacks this season. They are allowing 31 points per game (132nd in the NCAA), 260.9 passing yards (155th), and 153.2 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Looking at Toledo’s five most recent road games, they have a 2-3 record against the spread.
• At home, Central Michigan is 0-3 against the spread in their last three games.
• In the last ten games as underdogs, Central Michigan has a 6-4 ATS record.
• Toledo is 3-2 in their last five games as favorites.

Free Pick

The Rockets haven’t lost since their opener, a close defeat on the road at Illinois. However, they are just 5-6 against the spread and 2-3 versus the spread on the road. The Chippewas have won all four home games this season despite being 1-3 ATS. With Toledo having clinched their position and Central Michigan aiming to remain undefeated at home, motivation could be a significant factor. Take CMU +10.5.